Page 64 - bne IntelliNews magazine February 2025

64 Opinion
bne February 2025
the more profound crisis. It has often indulged the far right. Only in 2021 did Orban jump before he was pushed out of the EPP, while Bulgaria’s populist Gerb – which formed the new government there earlier this month – remains a member.
Leading EPP figures have indicated that the group should be open minded about working with the far right in the European Parliament, particularly on migration and on reversing the last Commission’s Green Deal.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (nominated by the EPP) has already shown a willingness
to be more accommodating to the views of the far right on migration and the Green Deal, as part of a bargain to use their votes if needed to get the rest of her programme through.
A further risk now is that, following Trump’s victory, the EU could back down on trying to discipline Orban – who has become a totemic figure for the US far right – ignoring his hollowing out of democracy, corruption and abuse of human rights, and his more and more overt sabotage of the bloc’s efforts to counter Russia.
“A new Trump administration might be willing to back
Analysts expect ‘perfect storm’ of political risks in 2025
Clare Nuttall in Glasgow
Global political risk is set to intensify in 2025, with analysts from Verisk Maplecroft warning of shifting alliances, escalating conflicts and the deepening impact of protectionism on global trade and supply chains.
The firm’s latest analysis, presented during a recent webinar, outlines a “perfect storm” of geopolitical challenges that businesses and investors must navigate in the coming year.
“99 countries have witnessed a significant increase in political risk over the past three years,” said Jimena Blanco, chief analyst, global risk insight at Verisk, referring to the firm’s research.
“It’s not just one factor, it’s actually a perfect storm of civil unrest, conflict, challenges to government authority, trade disputes, interstate tensions, resource nationalism, sanctions,” Blanco told the webinar on January 15.
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[populist forces] in their intra-EU struggles or help out in their individual challenges,” Jeremy Schapiro and Zsuzsanna Végh wrote in a recent policy brief for the European Council on Foreign Relations. “In exchange, these forces could use their influence in the Council to, say, reduce retaliation from the EU against his trade policies or for increasing fossil fuel and weapons purchases from the US.”
Europe is therefore in danger of giving in to the far right without putting up a fight, something that would be dangerous at any time, but which is disastrous when the continent is threatened by Russian aggression, both on its borders and in hybrid attacks within.
Yet the victory of the far right, abetted by Trump and his minions, is still far from certain. Even in Central Europe, populism’s stronghold, Fico’s government in Slovakia is wobbling, and Orban faces a serious challenge from Peter Magyar’s Tisza party at the 2026 Hungarian election.
But only by standing firm against Trump and the far right, and by meeting the real – primarily economic – concerns of their discontented voters, will Europe’s centre be able to do this.
“All of these have the potential to converge at times or remain parallel but distinct risks at others.”
Blanco added: “there is one common thread stitching our political risk outlook together and that is the strategic competition between major powers creating this new baseline level of risk and uncertainty for businesses and investors.”
This is set to intensify in 2025, as Donald Trump takes power in the US on January 20.
“As President Trump takes office since again ... the role of international trade as a geopolitical battleground is set to intensify as his proposed tariffs could upend international trade, place further pressure on glob and also potentially drive inflation in the US,” Blanco told the webinar organised by Verisk Maplecroft.