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November 17, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 7
China as its only gas export customer. Iran has throughout this year stressed that it is prepared to take Turkmenistan before international arbitrators. Ashgabat has responded with similar threats,
but has also claimed that it plans to maintain supplies to Iran at 7bcm in 2017, unchanged from 2016. This did not stop Iran from rejecting Turkmenistan’s proposed gas-swap deal to get Turkmen gas to Turkey and Iraq, although it has relented enough to allow gas swap arrangements involving supplies for Azerbaijan and Armenia.
As Turkmenistan finds itself in a desperate bind largely of its own making, while Iran may be fac- ing a risk of losing influence in Central Asia to its Middle Eastern rivals, Uzbekistan may be in a position to serve as the voice of reason in the Iranians' rows across the region.
No trust issues were brought up during the Uzbek delegation's visit to Iran, even if Uzbekistan could
easily find grounds for staying guarded. Though it was at the time closer to Tajikistan, in 2010 Iran interfered on behalf of the Tajiks during a Tajik- Uzbek railroad dispute by warning it would halt all Uzbek freight that passed through Iran.
A May article in The Diplomat cited a US ambassador to Tajikistan indicating a likelihood of Iran wanting to build a “Persian axis” along with Afghanistan and Tajikistan. If true, Iran’s choice would imply a preference for more distant relations with countries like Uzbekistan, where, since the country’s independence, the Tajik minority’s identity has been publically suppressed.
But alignments in Central Asian politics appear to have changed unrecognisably within the past year and reformist Mirziyoyev may end up becoming the missing piece of the Iran-Central Asia jigsaw of alliances.
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