Page 121 - RusRPTJan23

According to Vedomosti's calculations, in general, the production of all independent producers for 11 months in aggregate reached 236bcm. m, an increase of 4.6% y/y.
In 2023, if the current geopolitical situation continues, according to Alfa-Bank, the decline in exports will continue - it may fall by more than 28%, or by about 28bcm. m. This will mean that the decline in gas production in Russia next year will be at least 4%. “However, in the event of a further slowdown in the Russian economy and a possible decrease in the production of gas chemical products, this estimate may turn out to be too optimistic, and the real decline in production in 2023 will be up to 10%,” the expert concludes.
According to Rosstat, oil production in Russia increased by 2.7% to 397.7 million tons in the first nine months, but during this period the dynamics was multidirectional. In the first quarter, it increased by 8.2% year-on-year, in the second quarter it decreased by 1.4%, in the third quarter it increased again - by 1.7%.
Since the beginning of the year, Gazprom has reduced gas production by 19.4% y/y to 376.9bcm, according to the company’s preliminary data. Gas exports to non-CIS countries for 11 months fell by 44.5%, or by 76.3bcm, to 95.2bcm.
At the same time, the average daily export of Gazprom in November decreased by 3.9% compared to October to 133.3mn cubic metres. Demand for Gazprom's gas from the gas transmission system in the domestic market of Russia decreased by 5.7%, or by 12.8bcm, over 11 months.
Russian gas exports to China continue to grow via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline under a bilateral long-term contract between Gazprom and CNPC. Deliveries regularly go beyond the daily contract quantities, Gazprom said.
"According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas extraction from European underground storage facilities started on November 14. As of November 29, 2.3bcm were withdrawn, which is 3.3% of the volume of gas pumped in preparation for the heating season. At the same time, the load on Europe's UGS in the current fall-winter period will be higher than in previous years, due to changes in logistics and gas supply sources to the European market," Gazprom noted.
In addition, Ukraine is also taking gas from underground storage facilities. The volume of gas in UGS facilities in Ukraine as of November 29 was 14% or 2.3bcm lower than last year’s figure.
Global demand for gas decreased by about 55bcm due to reduced demand in
121 RUSSIA Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com