Page 163 - RusRPTApr23

The current condition of the Central Asia - Center gas pipeline, which was built in 1960s and may require investments for the upgrade, can be one of obstacles for exports via Central Asia, the Center added.
Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries may fall to 67-69bn cubic metres in 2023, say analysts at the Energy Development Center, adding that only 33bn cubic metres of this volume will go to Europe.
"According to our estimates, Gazprom's gas exports to non-CIS countries in 2023 may amount to about 67-69bn cubic metres, including 33bn cubic metres to Europe, 21bn cubic metres to Turkey (half of the volumes supplied there are linked to European prices) and 24-25bn cubic metres to China. If we assume that the price of gas in the EU during the year averages $700 per 1,000 cubic metres, then the average price of Gazprom's exports to non-CIS countries may be below $600 per 1,000 cubic metres," the analysts say in the report.
For comparison: in 2022, Gazprom delivered 100.9bn cubic metres of gas to non-CIS countries. The drop in exports compared to 2021 was 45.5%.
Gazprom's export earnings from deliveries to the EU in January could fall to $1.8bn, and in February - to $1.1bn, against $3.3bn in December, according to estimates from the Energy Development Center.
In December 2022, Gazprom's exports to Europe (excluding Turkey) amounted to 2.27bn cubic metres, and in January and February, amid warm weather and cheaper gas on the spot market, deliveries fell to 1.46 and 1.58bn cubic metres, respectively, according to the report.
Nevertheless, the analysts expect an increase in Gazprom's exports to Europe in March-April to 2bn cubic metres per month.
The payment of the final dividends of the gas holding for 2022 is also unlikely, experts say.
"Gazprom has already paid an interim dividend of 1.2 trillion rubles ($15.8bn) in 2022, giving away half of its IFRS net profit for the first half of 2022. In the second half of 2022, in our opinion, the company's net income, taking into account adjustments, could be minimal or even zero. In this case, taking into account budget needs, Gazprom may refuse to pay final dividends for 2022 or limit itself to a token amount," the analysts at the Energy Development Center concluded.
The price of gas in Europe dropped threefold over the winter to $515 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to London’s ICE. The unusually warm winter and the high volume of gas in storage facilities were major contributors to this decline. Gas futures traded around $1,550 per 1,000 cubic metres on November 30, and the trading session ended at $515 on February 28 - three times lower than at the beginning of the winter. The biggest drop occurred on February 28, when gas prices dropped to $505 for the first time since the end of August 2021.
The average gas price in Europe in December amounted to about $1,272 per 1,000 cubic metres, in January - $712, and in February - around $583.
163 RUSSIA Country Report Russia April 2023 www.intellinews.com