Page 164 - RusRPTApr23

Russia's ruptured undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters on March 3.
Natural gas demand in China is likely to grow this year as the economy recovers, but whether the country's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rebound will depend on spot prices, an executive of PetroChina International said. China's LNG imports dropped nearly 20% to 63.4mn tonnes last year, pushing it down to the world's No.2 LNG buyer behind Japan as zero-COVID lockdown measures and high spot prices hit demand. China's apparent gas consumption was 366.3bn cubic metres in 2022, down 1.7% from the previous year, data from the country's National Development and Reform Commission showed. "This year, we expect at least the same level (as in 2022) – we believe there could be slightly more given recovery of the (Chinese) economy," Zhang said.
In 2022-2023, around 120-140bn cubic metres of Russian pipeline gas will leave the European market and Europe will need several years to replace these volumes, Head of the laboratory of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Semikashev said in his article published by the InfoTECH analytical centre Tass reports on March 8.
"120-140bn cubic metres of Russian pipeline gas, which previously went to Europe, will leave this market in 2022-2023. The annual commissioning of new LNG production capacities is in the range of 20-30bn cubic metres. This means that it will take several years to make up for this decline. And this is assuming that demand from other countries does not grow," he explained.
According to the expert, this combination of various factors means that the period of high gas prices will continue in the coming years until 2026-2027.
"What exactly are high gas prices? They are European spot prices that exceed $450-500 per 1,000 cubic metres. However, in recent years, prices have reached $1,500-2,000, which is equivalent to $400-500 per barrel of oil. This means that today's prices are extremely high, and in the medium term they will average $600-800, with periodic fluctuations in the range of $300-1,500," the expert believes.
Last year Europe received about 135bn cubic metres of LNG, more than 20bn of which was Russian gas from the Yamal LNG project, and another 10bn cubic metres of Russian gas was "practically stolen - confiscated in German storage facilities owned by Gazprom's German subsidiary".
If Russia's gas production in 2022 will decrease by about 140bn cubic metres compared to last year, the decrease this year will not exceed 20bn cubic
164 RUSSIA Country Report Russia April 2023 www.intellinews.com