Page 84 - bne Magazine August 2022

84 I New Europe in Numbers bne August 2022
Ukraine grain production, exports mn tonnes in the agricultural marketing year July-June
Source: Central Bank of Slovak
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people
Ukraine wheat and grain production forecasts tumble, but some exports start
The outlook for the production and export of Ukraine’s grain production this year has halved due to the war raging in the country, stoking fears of a global food crisis. USDA lowered its forecasts for wheat production in Ukraine from 21.5mn tonnes to 19.5mn tonnes as the harvest gets under way in Ukraine.
A more upbeat forecast from Analyst APK-Inform said that Ukraine could harvest 52.4mn tonnes of grain in 2022, including almost 18.2mn tonnes of wheat and 27.7mn tonnes of corn, that is still half of the harvest in 2021.
COVID-19 cases start to rise in Southeast Europe just as tourist season starts
Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases are increasing again in several Southeast European countries just as the region starts to welcome large numbers of tourists for the 2022 summer season.
After the lifting of most coronavirus related restrictions and a period of low infection numbers, several countries are now reporting the highest numbers of new infections for several months.
The rise in infections compared to the size of the population is particularly strong in Slovenia and Montenegro, but upturns are also evident in Albania, Croatia, Kosovo and Serbia.
Germany’s ZEW Index collapses as fears of gas rationing mount
Germany’s leading economic index, the ZEW, collapsed in July as fears mount that Russia will cut the country off from gas entirely at the end of the month, and that could spark a major economic crisis, Oxford Economics reported on July 12.
The ZEW index added to those worries by tumbling in July. The assessment of current conditions dropped 18.2pts over the month to -45.8, but the expectations sub-index fell even more, falling 25.8pts
to -53.8, beating March 2020's trough and indicating that investors
are gravely worried about the current constellation of risks, not least
a cut-off from the Russian gas supply, Oxford Economics said in a note.
Kazakh manufacturing sector PMI signals further expansion in June amid sharp rise in new orders
The Kazakh manufacturing sector signalled further growth in June following a reversal in May due to the outbreak of war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russia, according to the latest PMI index data
The index posted 53.0 in June, after the 52 print in May. The headline Kazakhstan Manufacturing PMI is a composite single-figure measure
of manufacturing performance. Growth recovery was marked by new orders expanding the most in 40 months since the survey was launched.
Source: Johns Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 Data
Germany: ifo & ZEW expectations
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Kazakhstan PMI index
Source: IHS Markit
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