Page 9 - Kazakh Outlook 2024

4.0 Inflation & Monetary Policy
Annual inflation in Kazakhstan slowed in November to 10.3% from 10.8% in October, the prime minister’s office announced in December. Kazakhstan’s central bank expects annual inflation to decrease to below 10% in the coming months – the country has experienced double-digit inflation in the past few years due to the combined effects of the COVID-19 crisis and impacts of the war in Ukraine, including the resulting Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.
Deputy chair of the National Bank Vitaliy Tutushkin said that “the decline in annual inflation and its forecasts made it possible to reduce the policy rate to 15.75%. At the same time, certain factors and risks require maintaining monetary conditions at the current level to stabilise inflation.”
Fitch Ratings expects Kazakh inflation to average 14.8% in 2023 and moderate to 9.5% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, above the central bank's medium-term inflation target of 5%.
5.0 Real Economy
5.1 Retail
Retail sales for January-September 2023 amounted to KZT13,122.1bn, marking a gain of 7.2% y/y. There is likely to be further growth amid the ongoing stabilisation of the Kazakh economy and decreasing inflation.
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