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 54 I Eurasia bne November 2020
 Uzbekistan's growth fell to zero in the first half of 2020 but is expected to recover somewhat in the second half of this year.
Uzbekistan one of only two countries in Europe and Central Asia to put in positive economic growth this year says World Bank Alisher Kalandarov in Tashkent
Higher gold production and growth in agriculture helped offset a sharp fall in industry and services. Despite a 19% decline in remittances, a cumulative increase of 17% in social payments and a 10% increase in minimum wages since February have helped preserve private consumption.
Lower remittances and a bigger trade deficit widened the current account deficit to 7.7% of GDP in the first half
of 2020. Exports fell by 22.6% in the same period, due to global supply chain disruptions and a fall in key commodity prices (natural gas, metals). Imports fell by 15% due to a sharp fall in machinery and capital imports.
Lower revenue collections and large anti-crisis spending contributed to
a fiscal deficit of about 5% of GDP in the first half of 2020. About 2.5% of GDP was directed to additional health spending, increases in low-income allowances, support to enterprises, and an expansion of public works. Despite
a large revenue increase from higher gold exports, weaker economic conditions and tax deferrals contributed to a two-percentage point year-on-year decline in revenues as a share of GDP.
Policy rate cut twice
Annual inflation fell to 11.6% in August allowing the Central Bank of Uzbekistan to cut its policy rate twice in 2020,
from 16% to 15% in April, and to 14% in September. Anti-crisis credit lines
to firms helped increase credit to the economy by 18% in January-August.
“The COVID-19 crisis in Uzbekistan
has almost entirely extinguished GDP growth in 2020, and increased poverty levels for the first time in over two decades. To mitigate the economic, social, and health consequences of the pandemic, the Government has been taking anti-crisis policy measures. Despite the current challenges, the authorities have reconfirmed their strong commitment to continue reforms in key sectors of the economy to achieve stronger growth and improve wellbeing of citizens. This is very important to ensure a more resilient and inclusive post COVID-19 recovery,” noted Marco
The autumn edition of the World Bank’s Economic Update released on October 7 forecasts that Uzbekistan is one of only two countries in Europe and Central Asia that will
see positive economic growth this year as the rest of the world suffers from
an economic recession caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The pandemic is the most severe crisis Uzbekistan has faced since the economy’s recovery from the breakup
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of the Soviet Union. It has adversely affected growth and resulted in declines in employment, wellbeing and the incomes of citizens.
In the first half of 2020, GDP growth was nearly zero, compared with growth of 5.8% in the first half of 2019. Investment in fixed capital decreased by 12.8% in the same period. The unemployment rate increased sharply from 9.4% in the first quarter of 2020, to 15% in the second quarter.













































































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