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Mantovanelli, World Bank country manager for Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan’s outlook remains positive
as market reforms continue to shift
the economy towards greater resource efficiency and private sector growth. The lifting of lockdowns in the third quarter of 2020, robust agricultural production, and a partial recovery of remittances will result in stronger economic activity in the second half of 2020 in contrast to the first one.
Annual GDP growth is projected between 0.4 and 0.8% this year. That's considerably lower than in 2019, when it reached 5.6%. Uzbekistan along
with Tajikistan are the only states among 23 countries in the Europe and Central Asia region that are expected
to demonstrate growth in 2020 (Table below). Assuming that lockdowns will not be reintroduced across the country, GDP growth is projected at between 4.8 and 5.0% in 2021.
World Bank’s economic forecasts 2020-2021
Inflation will moderate over the medium term but remain elevated by further price reforms. The current account deficit is
The wider deficit in 2020 and the medium term will be financed by increased external borrowing, and public
“Higher gold production and growth in agriculture helped offset a sharp fall in industry and services”
expected to be around 6% of GDP in 2020 due to a recovery in remittances and a lower trade deficit. It is projected to remain at this level over the medium term as imports of machinery and equipment resume post-COVID-19. This deficit is expected to be financed by higher public borrowing and gradually by rising foreign investment.
The projected fiscal deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2020 will moderate in 2021-22 as anti-crisis spending is gradually reduced and revenues recover. It is projected to decline over the medium-term.
external debt will increase to 34.7% of GDP in 2020. Although the debt has increased since 2017, it is expected to stabilise over the medium term.
The country’s external debt remains moderate in comparison with the levels seen in 22 other states in the Europe and Central Asia region. The debt-to-GDP- ratios projected in 2020 for Kazakhstan is 26.6%, the Kyrgyz Republic – 64.2%, Tajikistan – 51%, Armenia – 63.8%, Azerbaijan – 19.6%, Georgia – 60%, Russia – 20.5%, Ukraine – 62%, and Belarus – 45.2%.
Source: World Bank.
Note: GDP and expenditure components are measured in 2010 prices and market exchange rates, unless indicated otherwise. World Bank assumptions are frequently updated based new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, the working assumptions presented here may differ from those contained in other World Bank documents, even if basic assesments of countries' prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time. For additional information, see www.worldbank.org/gep.
e = estimate; f = forecast. a. GDP growth rate at constant prices is based on the production approach.
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