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58 Opinion bne November 2020
The population began its post-socialism journey politically immature and have had to learn the power of their vote. But now they get it.
EEU riven by instability from Bishkek to Belarus
Ben Aris in Berlin
What’s wrong with the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU), the economic block set up by Russia that is a copy of the EU and was supposed to promote stability and prosperity throughout the Eurasian land mass?
Three out of the five members of the EEU are in flames
and many of the countries around it that resisted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strong-arming them to join are not much better off. A wave of protests and now even a war have swept over the region to join long-standing frozen conflicts that show no sign of ever being resolved.
Belarus is facing its biggest demonstrations since independence in 1991. It was joined by Kyrgyzstan, which erupted into riots following yet another fixed election. Bulgarians have been on the streets for months to protest against corruption, and even in Russia the Kremlin has been struggling to contain protests in the Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk, which are also in their third month. And
if that were not enough, Armenia and Azerbaijan just went to war with each other.
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Beware the Ides of August
In July Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro Advisory, wrote his annual op-ed for bne IntelliNews: “August in Russia: what could possibly go wrong.” August is supposed to be the quietest month of the year as everyone goes to the dacha for the long summer holiday – and it almost never is. But this year’s set of summer crises have been off the scale.
Weafer caught many of the crises that have since blossomed: the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, protests in Russia’s Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk, and possible new US sanctions, the threat of which has crushed the value of the ruble in recent weeks. He even correctly pointed out that presidential elections in Belarus could blow up and even more presciently called out the rising tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia to the south of Russia.
“On the southern border, the main concern is the steady increase in the fatal clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces on either side of the Nagorno-Karabakh border,” said Weafer.