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60 Opinion
process of moving beyond the totalitarian system of centrally
planned economies.
Minsk is the perfect example. Under Lukashenko it has been the last hold-out of the Soviet system, as the president has run it as a neo-Soviet command economy where the state controls almost everything of value and employs a very large share of the population.
This system worked surprisingly well, as Lukashenko managed to shelter a large part of the population, the most vulnerable part, from the worst ravages of “shock therapy” and a decade of destitution. He could afford to do this thanks to the generous energy subsidies from Russia that allowed the government to subsidise an otherwise hugely inefficient system.
Minskians have described their parallel lives where they co-existed with the quasi-Soviet state, but focused mostly on their private lives. The August 9 elections broke this delicate equilibrium and the people are now demanding a definitive end to Lukashenko’s system and the introduction of a modern democratic system instead.
The story is very similar in the other countries like Ukraine, Bulgaria and even Russia; however, in these places it is corruption that is the more significant factor.
This tension has already boiled over in several countries producing their coloured revolutions. Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have already ejected two presidents in mass protests, while Georgia and most recently Armenia have done the same.
Other countries in the region have been plagued by large demonstrations in the last year, including Romania, which saw almost half a million people take to the streets to protest against blatant corruption. There were mass demonstrations in Moldova after bankers connected to the president walked off with $1.5bn in a massive banking scam. Serbia has seen months of street protests at the start of the year. And both Georgia and Armenia have had regular large demonstrations in addition to their full blown revolutions. Even Russia has experienced a string of large demonstrations in the last year against smelly rubbish tips and the closure of local parks by greedy local administrations.
While the popular desire for more political freedom does not always end in a colour revolution – which are economically destructive – it is a powerful force fuelling domestic politics across the region. Increasingly managing the population’s expectations has become the overriding task of the long-serving presidents in the region. They ignore this force at their own peril.
Thirdly, and most subtly, has been the ongoing process of the population of the CIS becoming more politically mature. This is not just about rejecting one system for another. This is about the people coming to realise they have the power to dictate
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to their rulers through the power of their vote – and when that is denied them, through the power of street protests.
Several factors are feeding into this process. In Russia, for example, the youth have largely abandoned watching TV in favour of online channels like YouTube, where the likes of anti-corruption blogger and opposition activist Alexei Navalny and blogger Yuri Dud are active and reach millions of people. The biggest website in Europe in terms of the number of users (excluding the international sites) in 1990 was Vkontakte (VK.com), the Russian answer to Facebook, which ranks number 14th overall. That means the Kremlin has lost control of the political message.
It also means the entire population are well informed about other protests and demands in other countries. It is no coincidence that Belarusian flags have appeared at the protests in Khabarovsk, as the call to action and protesters’ demands have informed protests in other countries.
The bloody end to Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution in 2014 and the economic collapse that followed are almost certainly responsible for the Belarusian opposition leaders' clear insistence on exclusively peaceful protests. The geopolitical mess Ukraine finds itself in now, caught between the White House and the Kremlin, has led the Belarusian opposition
to carefully reject taking sides in the geopolitical showdown between East and West, and their promises to maintain close and friendly relations with Russia as well as develop relations with the EU.
By the same token, Ukraine’s bitter experience acts as
a restraint on Russian protests, as after a decade of prosperity in the noughties the Russian people have a lot more to lose than the Ukrainians did in 2014.
As Bulgaria’s experience shows, the problems faced by the members of the EEU are not exclusive to them but shared by all the countries in transition.
The population began its post-socialism journey politically immature and have had to learn the power of their vote. That is the essence of the showdown in Minsk: the people voted for a new president; Lukashenko has totally ignored those votes, so now the people are insisting on their right to choose a president via voting and their overriding demand is simply for new free and fair elections.
Most of the people living in the East were merely trying to survive in the 1990s. Three decades on and life is relatively normal in most countries in the region. Increasingly satisfied with their income the people are increasingly dissatisfied with the performance of the government. Instead of demanding more money, they are starting to think about
the long term – their own old age, their children’s future – and demanding instead better services from the government and responsible and responsive leaders.