Page 85 - RusRPTJul23

China and Uzbekistan account for almost three quarters of Russian timber exports, with China’s share rising faster, Head of the Federal Agency for Forestry Ivan Sovetnikov told TASS at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
"In Q1 2023, exports amounted to 4.2 mln cubic metres of timber. China and Uzbekistan accounted for over 74% of all timber exports in the first three months of this year. Last year, their share totaled 56%. Russia’s timber supplies to China grew most of all, by 98,000 cubic metres, or 3.5%, to 2.9 mln cubic metres. Consequently, China’s share in the volume of Russian timber deliveries rose from 49% to 64%," he said.
Russia’s second-largest purchaser of Russian timber, Uzbekistan, boosted purchases by 57,000 cubic metres, or 13%, to 479,000 cubic metres, with its share rising to 11%. Moreover, among the key contractors in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same period last year, purchases were notably boosted by China, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkey, the UAE, and Kyrgyzstan.
Potash fertilisers are also forecast to see a rise in transit from Belarus via Russia, according to Minister of Transport Vitaly Savelyev. The throughput is expected to be 8.4mn metric tonnes in 2023.
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
The current account surplus of Russia’s balance of payments in 5M23 dropped to $22.8bn from $123.8bn for the same period of 2022, according to the latest estimates by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Such a sharp year on year drop is almost entirely due to the reduction of the trade surplus by $99.6bn.
bne IntelliNews already reproted that the CA surplus is expected to tumble to $66bn in 2023 from $227bn a year earlier. The situation has flipped since spring 2022, with the volume of Russian exports and prices falling and imports being on the rise, the CBR commented.
The deficit in foreign trade in services has also increased markedly from $5.7bn in 5M22 to $9.3bn in 5M23, out of $4.1bn generated in the last two months of April and May.
According to the Central Bank's baseline forecast for 2023, updated in late April, with an average annual oil price of $55 per barrel, the current account surplus would amount to $47bn, (a surplus of $117bn in goods trade balance, a deficit of $23bn in services trade and a deficit of $47bn in primary and secondary income).
Analysts surveyed by Kommersant note that with the increasing sanctions pressure on exporters and with commodity markets deteriorating, the CBR’s
85 RUSSIA Country Report July 2023 www.intellinews.com