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40 I Cover story bne July 2024
Ukraine: That contrasts sharply with 33% of Ukrainians that think Ukraine moving in the “right direction”. 47% disagree and say it’s going in the “wrong direction”, according to a survey by the Razumkov Center published on June 26.
More tellingly, a new poll from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests that the share of Ukrainians open to a negotiated settlement has dramatically risen over the past year to June, and, if present trends hold, will become a majority- held view before the end of this year.
Polls from the earliest days of the war showed nearly unanimous Ukrainian support for the government and its handling of the war effort in the first year, but are starting to weaken now.
The views of Zelenskiy are mixed globally
% who have _ (of) confidence in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to do the right thing regrding world affair
Note: In the U.S. and Austria "Don't know/Refused" includes those who say "Never heard of this person".
Source: Spring 2024 Global Attitudes Survey.
"NATO" Seen Favourably in Member States; Confidence in Zelenskiy down in Europe, U.S.
www.bne.eu
Support has fallen from a 2022 high
of 70% following a successful counter- offensive to 48% in the summer of 2023 following the failure of the second counter-offensive, according to Gallup. The share of Ukrainians that say ceasefire talks should start now has also risen to 44% as of June.
The majority of respondents still believe Zelenskiy should stay on as president and he retains the people’s trust, but his popularity ratings are also falling slowly as the war and destruction drag on.
Bankova watches the mood of the people closely and in the last week Ukrainian Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko is said to have been sounding out public reaction to talks on behalf of Zelenskiy’s administration. He floated a trial balloon, a new “formula of victory,” which accepts that Ukraine would agree to losing territory, at least temporarily, in exchange for strong security guarantees. “If taken on board, this formula would replace Zelenskiy’s maximalist ‘formula of peace’,” says Ragozin.
Picking up on the recent softening
in Bankova’s rhetoric, Fesenko told Politika Strany: “The change in the government’s rhetoric reflects a change in public opinion, which
the presidential office has always researched very thoroughly. With their toolbox, they observed that the preparedness of Ukrainians to accept talks with Russia is higher than one could observe in the polls that have been publicised.”
Europe: Europeans are clearly tiring of the war, although they continue side with Ukraine. A negotiated outcome with Russia, as opposed to an outright Ukrainian military victory, is now also seen as the most likely outcome by most Europeans, according to a poll of 15 countries by the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) think-tank in the first half of May.
ECRF found support for war and victory is strong amongst Ukrainians, despite weakening morale. A total of 34% of Ukrainians currently say they trust the Ukrainian president, Zelenskiy, “a great
deal” and 31% trust him “quite a lot”. More than half (58%) of Ukrainians foresee a Ukrainian victory, 30% say it will end in a settlement, and only 1% expect Russia to emerge victorious. But tellingly, a majority preferred ceding territory rather than abandoning sovereignty, defined by the right to join Nato and the EU.
Inside 14 European countries ECFR surveyed, only in Estonia was there a prevailing view (38%) that Ukraine would win the war outright.
Majorities in Sweden and Poland wanted Europe to help Ukraine fight until all its territory is regained. Majorities in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria opposed this, saying it was a bad idea to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine further.
Italy emerged as the largest major European power that is least supportive of Ukraine. But in most European countries, large majorities still back sending more arms to Ukraine, even
if it is just to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating hand.
A middle group of countries, including Czech Republic, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland, lack a national consensus on the war and the EU’s role.
In no country, even the most hawkish, was there any support for sending European troops to Ukraine.
A second recent poll from the US pollster Pew found that confidence in Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has also faded and is now mixed across the 35 countries surveyed, and is falling slowly.
A median of 40% have confidence in him to do the right thing regarding world affairs, while 46% do not, Pew reports. “Confidence in Zelenskiy has declined significantly over the past year in some countries where trend data is available.”
The share of people with confidence in Zelenskiy differs considerably across countries in Europe and North