Page 41 - bne_July 2024_20240709

bne July 2024 Cover story I 41
America. Confidence is highest in Sweden, where eight in ten have confidence in him. About two-thirds or more in Canada, the Netherlands and the UK also express confidence. However, six in ten or more in Greece, Hungary and Italy do not have confidence in Ukraine’s president.
Poland showed the most drastic decline in opinion towards Zelenskiy and Ukraine. Poles are torn between their antipathy towards Russia and its growing economic rivalry with Ukrainian goods transiting to the EU markets.
“Among Poles, 48% have confidence in Zelenskiy, down from 70% in 2023 (-22 points),” Pew said.
Confidence in him has also decreased by double digits in South Korea (-15) and South Africa (-12). Decreases are smaller but still statistically significant in Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the US.
Ironically, in Germany, which has led the European support for Ukraine, confidence in Putin is on the rise, up by 9 points, and favourable views towards Russia have increased by 5 points since 2023, according to Pew.
This may be connected to the rise of the right in Europe, as right-wingers are more likely to support Putin and dismiss Zelenskiy, the survey found. In Germany, supporters of Alternative for Germany (AfD) are about half as likely as those who do not support AfD to express confidence in the Ukrainian leader (31% vs. 61%).
US: Nearly a quarter of Americans believe that the United States is not providing enough military assistance to Ukraine, a sentiment that has grown since late last year, according to Pew.
A quarter (24%) of Americans now think that US support for Ukraine is insufficient, up from 18% in November 2023. However, nearly a third (31%) of Americans feel that the US is providing too much assistance to Ukraine, while 25% believe the current level of aid is adequate.
The United States stands out as the only country with significant ideological divides on this issue. Among right-wing Americans, 51% believe the US provides too much support to Ukraine, compared to just 13% of left-wing respondents.
Global South: At a country level support is faltering too and Putin has made
big inroads in selling his cause to the Global South. The Swiss peace summit was a failure, as not only did few from the Global South attend, but out of the 100 participants only 78 signed off on
a very vague final communiqué. And several countries quietly removed their signatures later after coming under pressure from Russia.
That contrasts sharply with the first March 2, 2022 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) vote following the invasion, when fully 141 countries voted to condemn Russia, 34 abstained and only five voted against the motion. Subsequent votes saw the number of condemnations fall somewhat, but
this time one that would include Russia, but most remain sceptical that the meeting will happen.
In another sign of Bankova’s softening stance, on July 4 Zelenskiy said that he was not against attending another peace summit together with Putin. However, in his opinion, Putin is unlikely to come, as he is "too scared" to sit at the negotiating table, but the participation of the US and China “as joint mediators” might make a difference, he said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also put himself up as a potential mediator in peace talks with Ukraine. Putin and Erdogan discussed the war issue at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan on July 3, but the Kremlin has said it has rejected the offer for now.
Putin and Zelenskiy maximalist positions mean currently there is no common ground for talks to begin, making the chances for an early end of the war low.
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also put himself up as a potential mediator in peace talks with Ukraine.”
if the Swiss summit was designed to
set a new benchmark of international support for Ukraine and isolate Russia further it had the opposite effect: it only highlighted the increasingly polarity of the West and Global South divide.
Getting to the table
The pressure on Zelenskiy to do some sort of deal with Russia is mounting but getting everyone around a table will
be extremely difficult. On balance the decision falls squarely on Zelenskiy’s shoulders.
Both Putin and Zelenskiy have backed themselves into a corner with their maximalist positions. Beijing has put forward an alternative Chinese peace plan and proposed, jointly with Brazil, a second peace summit this autumn,
Serbian President and Russia supporter Aleksandar Vucic summed up the scepticism that a deal could be done
in the near future in an interview at the end of June: “The termination of the Ukrainian conflict is impossible at the moment, even by means of using China’s latest initiative. I don't see a scenario of ending the war in Ukraine for now. I have studied the Chinese initiative. It is good. It is really good.
I welcome this six-point proposal. I believe that over 100 countries have already supported it, which is crucial, because it envisages an immediate ceasefire. Only when a ceasefire has been achieved and when no more people lose their lives the negotiations should begin, but I do not see a chance for this to happen," Vucic said.
www.bne.eu