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the composition and working of the European Council and the Council of Ministers, the bodies where member states’ heads of government ministers and national ministers respectively come together and set the high-level policy agenda and adopts EU laws."
Enlargement at risk
There are also implications beyond the borders of the EU. The report
by Chatham House highlights the long-term threat to EU enlargement posed by the rise of far-right parties. "Enlargement may not be a main campaign issue, but the surge in votes for these [rightwing and far-right] parties points to ambivalence at
best – opposition at worst – to EU enlargement," the report states.
Public support for Ukraine, one of the new EU candidate countries since 2022, joining the EU is lowest in countries where far-right parties hold significant sway, including Austria, France, Hungary and Slovakia.
More broadly, parties like the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), France’s National Rally (RN), Austria's Freedom Party (FPO) and Germany's AfD remain sceptical about EU enlargement.
This may be a problem in particular for Ukraine, with the strong performance for parties linked to Russia, notably France’s RN, says the European Policy Centre (EPC) in a new paper published after the European Parliament elections.
“An RN victory, not least due to Le Pens’ ties to the Kremlin, would underline Ukraine’s war effort, at a time when Kyiv is struggling on the battlefield
and unpredictable US elections loom. Furthermore, it also risks derailing efforts to reinvigorate EU Enlargement Policy. With the EU’s role in the world weakening, getting it right on Ukraine remains crucial for Ukraine’s very survival as a state, and the EU’s security,” wrote Amanda Paul, deputy head of EPC’s Europe in the World Programme and senior policy analyst, and Lev Zinchenko, programme assistant, Europe in the World Programme.
There are some exceptions, as pointed out in the Chatham House report, among them Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, which views Ukraine’s membership as crucial for its national security. Meanwhile, Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party advocates for the accession of Serbia and Bosnia & Herzegovina,
a policy linked to its close ties with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Milorad Dodik, president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska. However, neither Fidesz nor PiS performed well in the European Parliament elections.
The composition of the European Parliament is not an urgent issue for enlargement, however. “Accession to the EU is a multi-year process, and it
is unlikely that any of the candidate countries will be ready to join the EU in the next five years. For enlargement- related issues that do require a vote in the European Parliament, it is unlikely that far-right MEPs would be able
to rally a majority to swing a vote – especially given the divisions among far right groupings on this issue ... But it might make debates about issues like financial assistance for enlargement- related reforms more difficult,” says the Chatham House report.
Opposition to enlargement is concentrated among the extreme right Identity and Democracy (I&D). Its MEPs have voted against or abstained on
new paper published after the European Parliament elections.
“The previous European Parliament (2019-2024) adopted a series of reports advocating for the democratic reform of the Union ... But the 2024 election results risk stalling this momentum; EU reform has been largely overlooked in nationally focused campaigns, and a more fragmented Parliament with
a stronger far-right will struggle to drive the necessary changes,” said Johannes Greubel, head of the EPC’s Transnationalisation Programme and Connecting Europe project leader.
Further concerns are raised about whether a shift to the right within the EU could lead to the bloc no longer acting as a force for democratisation within would-be members. Berta López Domènech, a junior policy analyst
at the EPC, warns that the European Parliament’s “ability to advocate for democracy at the heart of the EU accession process will be weakened”.
She adds: "The growth at the EU and member states’ level of the reactionary right-wing forces that reject democracy as the cornerstone of the EU accession process can shift its direction.”
There have already been frequent clashes between some of the eastern EU members, most notably Hungary, with
“The growth at the EU and member states’ level of the reactionary right-wing forces that reject democracy as the cornerstone of the EU accession process can shift its direction”
enlargement-related resolutions in the European Parliament, while MEPs from the more moderate rightwing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) tend to vote in favour.
An important issue for enlargement, namely internal reforms to the EU, could also be held up, as pointed out by the European Policy Centre (EPC) in a
fellow EU leaders over the bloc’s liberal values. This now risks being repeated on a larger scale.
As the EU grapples with internal fragmentation and growing polarisation, highlighted by the recent European Parliament election results, the path to enlargement remains fraught with challenges.
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