Page 42 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine September 2024

42 I Eastern Europe bne September 2024
First F-16 fighters arrive in Kyiv, but they will make no difference on the battlefield as they are too few, too late. / bne IntelliNews.
size of the bombs mean what defences Ukraine has belatedly built are power- less against the glide bombs, but as they only have a 50-km range their use has been limited to the front line, and the city of Kharkiv in particular.
Even with the arrival of the F-16s in Ukraine, their deployment in combat remains uncertain. Press reports say that trained Ukrainian pilots may need addi- tional time to become fully operational.
Ukrainian and Western officials caution that the F-16s, once hailed by Kyiv as a game-changer, are unlikely to make an immediate impact on the battlefield. They cannot fly close to the front line, where Russian forces are equipped
with surface-to-air missiles. Moreover, they would go up against the 350-plane strong Russian air force flying SU-34 fifth generation Sukhoi jets, some of the most advanced fighter jets in the world.
The primary role of F-16s jets, at least initially, will be limited to defensive operations, focusing on intercepting incoming Russian missiles targeting cit- ies and energy infrastructure far from the
the closure of the sky over Ukraine would provoke Russia’s direct aggres- sion against Nato. This is self-hypnosis,” Zelenskiy said in another video address in May 2022. “Of those who are weak, underconfident... all the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you. Because of your weak- ness. Because of your disunity.”
Despite these desperate pleas it has taken Nato more than two years to deliver a mere handful of jets and somewhere between 150,000 and 300,000, according to varying estimates, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have died in the meantime.
80 jets – eventually
The F-16 coalition has committed to supplying Ukraine with at least 79 planes from the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Norway, but over the com- ing years. The Ukraine need for effective aircover is desperate and current.
After the US ran out of money for Ukraine in January, Ukraine’s air defences collapsed. Russia intensified its missile barrage in January to take advantage
of Ukraine’s lack of anti-missile cover. Then Russian forces took the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka on Febru- ary 17 and intensified its barrage again
in March, taking almost total control of the air in the process. By the end of the summer, 90% of Ukraine’s non-nuclear power generation installed capacity has
www.bne.eu
been destroyed – about half of the total installed capacity.
In the meantime, a total of six pilots have reportedly recently completed their training to fly the F-16s in a programme that was plagued with language barriers and technical difficulties, according to the Washington Post. The US is reportedly
“The primary role of F-16s jets, at least initially, will be limited to defensive operations, focusing on intercepting incoming Russian missiles targeting cities and energy infrastructure far from the front line.”
deliberately dragging its heels in training pilots to fly the desperately needed F-16 and permission is also being withheld to use Western weapons to strike targets inside Russia proper.
These policy decisions come as Russia has innovated and started using FAB glide bombs – Soviet-era 3-tonne gravity bombs that have had wings strapped
to their backs and been launched from Russian jet fighters to devastating effect. Russia is currently launching some 800 of these heavy bombs against Ukraine, whose only defence is to shoot down the jets that launch them. The
front line. The glide bomb threat will not be addressed at all. Engaging in offensive operations against Russian ground forces on the front line is not an option.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been clearly frustrated by the lack of air sup- port provided by Nato from day one. He has called for a minimum of 120 F-16s and voiced concerns over the number of jets received, calling it "insufficient."
He said that while the decision to provide F-16s is strategic, the quantity does not yet meet the strategic needs of Ukraine. "The decision on the F-16 is strategic,"