Page 43 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine September 2024

bne September 2024 Eastern Europe I 43
Zelenskiy said. "The number is not yet strategic."
The story was similar in the provision
of the powerful German-made Leopard tanks – another potential game-changer on the battlefield. However, with the Leopard too, Ukraine’s Western allies were reluctant to deliver the weapon
for fear of provoking an escalation and
a direct conflict between Russia and Nato forces. In the end rather than sending 300, the West has sent a total of 58 Leopard tanks, according to reports, far too few to make a difference on the battlefield. Moreover, the effectiveness of the Leopard tanks was greatly reduced by the lack of air cover, a pairing that
is standard practice in Nato’s military playbook.
The first full squadron of F-16s, comprising approximately 20 jets, is expected to arrive by the end of 2024. However, logistical challenges, including training capacity and the need for extensive ground support, may delay their effective use.
There are additional problems with the F-16s that need to be addressed. One of the biggest headaches is the enormous amount of maintenance
they need that will have to be provided by US military personnel. Second is the sensitivity of the planes to the state of the runways. Ukraine’s air force is made up of Soviet-built MiGs, a robust plane that can operate on imperfect runways and needs less maintenance. However, damaged runways are a much bigger problem for the more sophisticated F-16s, making bombing runways a much more obvious target.
Another problem with so few F-16s is where they will be stored. Russia has developed long-distance highly accurate guided missiles that can in theory target the F-16s while they are on the ground, a major vulnerability that also carries high propaganda value if the planes can be destroyed in their home bases.
Although a PR coup for Zelenskiy, experts have long expressed scepticism about the F-16’s ability to significantly alter
the dynamics of the conflict. Amongst Russia’s arsenal is the S-400 surface-to- air defence system that can take an F-16 out, widely considered a state-of-the-art defence system that both Turkey and India have bought to protect their borders. And Russia is in the process of rolling out the next generation S-500 system.
The best that analysts say the F-16 can bring to the party is a boost to morale amongst Ukraine’s forces at the front line, but they will not be able to deliver any material advantage.
To add to the irony, the US is not provid- ing any F-16s from its own stockpile
and has left it to its European partners to send planes. Many of those partners said they would only release F-16s to Ukraine after they have received deliv- ery of the US new F-34 fifth-generation fighters. However, that caveat has added extra delays, as the US F-34 develop- ment programme has been bedevilled by problems and delays, which will lead to further delays in the delivery of jets to Kyiv. The total of 80 jets promised
to Ukraine is unlikely to be in Ukraine before 2026 – if then.
What the US has promised to provide, in a face-saving measure, is missiles for the European F-16s, including AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground mis- siles and AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles. However, even
this promise came with a caveat: the availability of these munitions remains constrained by production capacities, the US press reports.
Lukashenko strives to lift his approval ratings ahead of the 2025 presidential elections, amidst questions about his health
bne IntelliNews
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is intensifying efforts to boost his approval ratings as the 2025 presidential campaign approaches.
Regime enforcers continue to play a sig- nificant role in regulating the economy and redistributing the consumer market, while security forces employ severe repression tactics to demotivate society, Belarus in Focus reports.
Lukashenko is also fending off ques- tions about his health. The Belaru-
sian strongman recently travelled to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin but video released on Russian state TV showed him heavily overweight, sweating and panting when he walked, leading observers to ask if Lukashenko is sick again.
More recently he appeared at a summit in Belarus with his military bosses but
looked in worse shape. “He was in a mili- tary uniform taking part in a parade in Minsk. His face is pale, shiny; his speech is not very confident,” Belarus in Focus reported.
Russian state media, which wields signifi- cant influence over Belarusian audiences, has prompted the president to refute rumours of his ill health during the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana. The messages are
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