Page 59 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine September 2024

bne September 2024
Opinion 59
Alleged Tajikistan coup plot “figment of regime’s imagination”, suggests analyst
bne IntelliNews
As Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon prepares to step down in favour of his son Rustam Emomali, a spate of arrests indicate that his regime is investigating a planned “uprising” that is “nothing more than a figment of the regime’s imagination”, a Carnegie researcher has suggested.
“All summer, Tajikistan has watched as, one after another, prominent politicians and public figures have been arrested for allegedly conspiring to carry out a coup,” wrote Galiya Ibragimova, an analyst at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in a commentary released on August 20.
She added: “The criminal case itself is classified, so
the available details are scarce. Indeed, there are many indications that this ‘uprising’ is nothing more than a figment of the regime’s imagination. After three decades at the top, President Emomali Rahmon is preparing to hand over power to his son Rustam Emomali, and it seems likely he is seeking to purge anyone who could feasibly threaten the transition.
“One of the oddest parts of the coup allegations is the list of detainees, who range from politicians and activists loyal to the regime to opposition figures, former soldiers, ex-ministers, and those with hardly any public profile. It’s
Strongman leader of Tajikistan since the early 90s Emomali Rahmon might be preparing to step down.
not at all clear what could have united such a disparate bunch and supposedly led them to conspire with the Tajik opposition abroad.”
The alleged ringleader was parliamentary deputy Saidjafar Usmonzoda, the former head of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan, which plays the role in the regime of an in-system opposition party that never attracts much support.
Tajik prosecutors have claied that Usmonzoda plotted with National Alliance, a coalition of opposition groups located outside the country.
His arrest, observed Ibragimova, came as a surprise given that he has long been seen as loyal to Rahmon.
Others arrests have included those of Hamrokhon Zarifi,
a former foreign minister who was close to Usmonzoda; Ahmadshoh Komilzoda, a prominent journalist who serves as first deputy chairman of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan; 73-year-old Akbarsho Iskandarov, an acting president from the 1990s viewed as no longer involved in politics; and field commanders from Tajikistan’s 1992–1997 civil war, namely Yaqub Salimov, Salamsho Muhabbatov and Nazrullo Naimov.
Alleged ringleader: Saidjafar Usmonzoda (Credit: Khovar).
"Heir" to the presidency Rustam Emomali with his father and president Emomali Rahmon (Credit: Tajik Presidential Administration).
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