Page 60 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine September 2024

60 Opinion
bne September 2024
Genuine opposition figures have also been detained. They include the deputy leader of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, Shakirjon Hakimov.
“Even the idea of someone trying to topple Rahmon raises questions,” said Ibragimova in her commentary. “Not only do the president and his close relations control almost all aspects of public life in Tajikistan, but the armed forces, security forces, and bureaucracy are also loyal to him. Rahmon’s son Rustam heads the upper house of the Tajik parliament – the second most senior position in Tajik government. He is already assembling a team to take over from his father.
“Rahmon’s eldest daughter, Ozoda, is presidential chief of staff, and her husband, Jamoliddin Nuraliev, is an influential banker. Some of the president’s other daughters are also in top jobs: Rukhshona is a career diplomat, while her husband is the influential oligarch Shamsullo Sohibov (who controls transport, trade, media, and finance); Tahmina and her husband, Zarifbek Davlatov, own a firm with a monopoly on airline tickets; and Parvina oversees the pharmaceutical sector.”
Of course, pointed out Ibragimova, not all of Rahmon’s children “are thrilled about Rustam being elevated to the top job. In particular, it’s clear that Ozoda and Rukhshona also strive for political power. However, they all understand that if the presidency were to pass to someone outside of the family, they would lose everything. For this reason, the closer the transition comes, the more the family is closing ranks.
It would be madness to organize a coup right now.”
Looking at claims that the political opposition – both at home and abroad – were involved in a conspiracy to topple Rahmon, the analyst said this was “also difficult to fathom”. As president, she noted, Rahmon has destroyed or exiled almost all of his opponents. The opposition in exile, Ibragimova contended “is not a serious threat either: not only do they have very limited resources, they have next to no influence inside Tajikistan”.
Potential enemy of planned succession? National security chief Saimumin Yatimov (Tajik presidential administration).
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Ibragimova summed up: “It’s hard to imagine, therefore, that the ‘coup’ has no connection to the regime’s preparations for the transition of power. While Rustam Emomali has been in politics for many years, some fear he is not ready to assume the presidency. He’s regularly accompanied by his father
at official events, and when he’s shown on television, his words are often replaced by a voiceover so that his voice is not heard, prompting speculation over his public speaking skills. Emomali Rahmon is accordingly preoccupied with ensuring a smooth handover.”
The analyst concluded: “Ahead of the power transition, Rahmon is evidently trying to minimize risks. Even so, it’s difficult to imagine everything will go to plan. The experience
“Ahead of the power transition, Rahmon is evidently trying to minimize risks. Even so, it’s difficult to imagine everything will go to plan”
of neighboring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan shows that inheriting a whole nation is a process fraught with unexpected complications. Even if Tajikistan’s transition goes smoothly, Rustam Emomali will still need to retain power. The big question is whether he’s up to the task.”
In another consideration of how Rahmon – a member of
the Danghara clan – might seek to stabilise the regime environment for son Rustam Emomali ahead of the succession, Ibragimova added observations on Mahmadsaid Ubaydulloyev – an apparent member of the Farkhor clan who was mayor
of Dushanbe from 1996 to 2017 and, according to rumour, secretly supported the opposition and harboured presidential ambitions – and Saimumin Yatimov – head of the State Committee for National Security and known as an influential member of the Farkhor clan.
Noted Ibragimova: “Both Ubaydulloyev and Yatimov are very familiar with the ugly side of the Rahmon regime, which makes them dangerous. In particular, there is bad blood between Yatimov and Rustam Emomali, who seriously wounded the security chief when he shot him in 2022, apparently for refusing to obey an order. Many believe that, ultimately, Rahmon is likely to remove Yatimov.
“Even Rahmon, however, cannot just fire the powerful Yatimov. A more logical approach would be to make Yatimov realize his vulnerabilities – for example, by arresting Usmonzoda, who not only comes from the same clan, but is related by marriage to Yatimov. In this way, Yatimov is given to understand he could also come under suspicion.”