Page 10 - Caucasus Outlook 2024

improve the existing ties with countries supplying arms to the country, particularly France and India. Additionally, Armenia hopes to get assistance from the European Union within the framework of the European Peace Facility.
Armenia’s internal political landscape seems to be cooling down after an autumn crisis, with 2024 not holding serious threats to the Pashinyan government. Despite a sharp decrease in the incumbent government’s reputation, the country’s opposition failed to achieve a government change and stopped its attempts and street protests.
1.3 Politics - Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been engaged in ongoing peace talks throughout the year, primarily focusing on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite some progress, including agreements to exchange prisoners of war and work towards normalising relations, the situation remains complex and unresolved.
Azerbaijan conducted a military offensive in September to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh from ethnic Armenian forces, leading to almost all of the region's ethnic Armenians fleeing the area and the arrest of the former leadership of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. This conflict has been a central aspect of Azerbaijan's foreign policy and internal politics in 2023. A peace deal with Armenia is expected in 2024, finally resolving this issue.
Meanwhile, tensions with neighbouring Iran have resurfaced, with Azerbaijan conducting military training near the Iranian border, an assault on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and the detaining of individuals accused of being linked to Iran's intelligence services. However, towards the end of the year, tensions eased as Azerbaijan sparred with Western countries such as France who are perceived as favouring Armenia and critical of Azerbaijan’s record on human rights and media freedom.
The government has been accused of suppressing political dissent, limiting press freedom, and using spurious charges to imprison critics, including journalists and political activists. There have been instances of journalists facing imprisonment, harassment, and surveillance, as well as allegations of torture against political prisoners. As of 14 December, more than 200 political prisoners (including politicians, journalists, human rights defenders, social activists, opposition party activists, and religious people) were in jail.
President Ilham Aliyev called for early presidential elections to be held in February 2024, a year earlier than originally planned. This decision has been linked to the military success in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has reportedly boosted Aliyev's popularity.
10 Central Asia & Caucasus Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com