Page 9 - Caucasus Outlook 2024

approach in the autumn of 2024. The new public opinion poll by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), finds that the overwhelming majority of Georgians (62%) believe that none of the political parties present in Georgia represent their interests, with 42% remaining “politically undecided”. NDI notes that “declared support for individual parties is so low that it cannot be taken as a guide to the outcome of future elections.”
Georgian Dream looks well placed in those elections, given that the United National Movement, the largest opposition party, has experienced a split, raising questions about its future.
Ruling Georgian Dream party Chairman, Irakli Kobakhidze, indicates a "high probability" of President Salome Zurabishvili participating in the parliamentary elections, after the ruling party's failed attempt to impeach the president over her EU visits and talks without government consent, ruled unconstitutional by the country's Constitutional Court. The conflict also includes the president pardoning Nika Gavaramia, a prominent opposition media figure and the first journalist to be convicted in independent Georgia’s history on widely perceived absurd charges.
Georgian Dream is undergoing a shift toward populist conservatism, aligning with Hungary's Viktor Orban, echoing Orban's promotion of Christianity and "traditional values". Collaboration is evident in a project to construct an electricity cable under the Black Sea, transmitting green energy from Azerbaijan to Hungary via Georgia and Romania, endorsed by the EU as a means to reduce dependence on Russian energy and bringing Georgia closer to EU.
1.2 Politics - Armenia
As in 2023, 2024 for Armenia will pose one particular challenge: sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, averting another possible war in the Caucasus over the southern Syunik region of Armenia, where a prospective road connecting Azerbaijan’s western regions to its exclave of Nakhchivan remains a hot point in peace talks.
Along with the peace negotiations, Armenia faces a refugee crisis resulting from Azerbaijan’s military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing the region’s over 100,000 population to flee their homes for Armenia. While a number of Western countries and International organisations have already sent donations to help the country deal with the crisis, Armenia is expecting more support and engagement from the West to provide the refugees with housing and meet their basic needs.
Another important challenge for Armenia in the coming year is going to be manoeuvring between Russia and the West, as the country tries to slowly move towards the West and distance itself from Russia. While the relations between Moscow and Yerevan turned out to be intense in the last months of 2023, the two countries did not make any break in the alliance, limiting the discontent to the level of mutual accusations and criticism.
In 2024, Armenia will also be expected to find new possible allies and
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