Page 23 - Caucasus Outlook 2024

2.3.1 GDP growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP
growth for 2023 at 2.4%, and 2.5% in 2024.
Regarding the current economic situation in Azerbaijan, the IMF notes the following factors: slowing inflation; high oil and gas prices supporting the country's strong external position; the situation in the banking sector continues to improve, but certain vulnerabilities remain like the slowdown in economic growth in 2023.
Currently, the Azerbaijani government has a 10-year development strategy called “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio-Economic Development“. Azerbaijan wants to build infrastructure, guarantee social inclusion, increase human capital, transition to "green growth," and establish a competitive and sustainable economy. The medium-term goal of the government is to lower the level of foreign debt, and high-tech and innovative external borrowing is being considered. "We have been actively working to reduce the level of external debt, and now it is less than 10% of our GDP. And next year (2024) we aim to reduce this figure to 7% of GDP. This actually demonstrates the stability of the Azerbaijani economy," Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev said in an interview in December.
2.3.2 External environment
Given its status as a major oil and gas exporter, Azerbaijan anticipated a sizable current account surplus. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan expects the current account surplus of the balance of payments at the end of 2023 to be at the level of $9bn-10bn (with an average oil price above $80 per barrel). The head of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, Taleh Kazimov said that in 2024 the account surplus will be $7.5bn-8.5bn, and in 2025 about $7bn.
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