Page 104 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

According to the Economic Development Ministry's socio-economic development forecast for 2024-2026, published on the ministry's website, Russia will produce 666.7 bcm of gas in 2024, up 4% from 2023, and exports will be 108 bcm compared with 131.2 bcm in 2022.
Gas sales plunge in 2023
Revenue from overseas sales of natural gas by Kremlin-controlled Gazprom is expected to plunge more than 70% in 2023. Reuters calculations show that Gazprom's revenues from gas exports may decline to around $22bn in 2023 from a record $80bn in 2022 when spot prices in Europe shot up to all-time highs amid tight supplies.
That will result in budget proceeds from gas exports falling to $6.5bn from $24bn in 2022, Reuters calculations show.
The calculations also showed that Gazprom's gas exports outside the former Soviet Union will fall further, to 68 bcm in 2023 from 100.9 bcm in 2022, when they had already almost halved.
The finance ministry expects that budget revenue from gas exports will be little changed, at around RUB567bn, in 2024 and might increase to RUB620-645bn in 2025-2026.
Gas partners
Europe has not broken its dependence on the import of Russian natural gas, as it has only got worse. The EU used to produce enough to supply itself, but that production has been falling in recent years.
The EU remains the leading consumer of Russia's pipeline gas and LNG, buying 41% and 50% of Moscow's exports respectively. While the 27-member bloc has gradually reduced its dependency on Russian energy following the February 2022 invasion, it still gets about a tenth of its gas supply, including LNG shipments, from the country.
Some EU member states produced as much natural gas as they consumed or even more. Now only Romania does, the EU's largest gas producer in absolute terms (it overtook the Netherlands in 2023). The EU went from producing over 30% of its gas demand in 2010 to 10% as of November 2023.
104 Russia OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com