Page 16 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

Ukraine is also facing manpower shortages but is finding it more difficult to obtain recruits. In December the Ukraine general staff floated a plan to recruit another 450,000 men and the government tightened the draft laws and reduced the draft age. Moreover, the Defence Minister has also called on the 690,000 Ukrainian men of military age currently living as refugees in EU countries to return home and sign up or face some sort of sanctions – although a final decision on this initiative had not been made as at the time of writing.
If Russia goes on the offensive next year a further wave of mobilisation is possible. The government has still built out comprehensive digital infrastructure that can be used to summon ordinary Russians, if necessary. (importantly, Putin instructed the defence ministry to start using a digital summons for the 2024 autumn conscription campaign, regardless of the Digital Ministry's objections that the system will only be fully functional in 2025) Shoigu also announced that the size of the armed forces would be increased from 1.15mn to 1.5mn personnel.
Much of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, which Russia formally annexed last year, remain under the control of Kyiv. And Putin pointedly stated in December that Odesa – and all of south-east Ukraine – was “Russian.” The city of Odesa was founded by Prince Potemkin, Catherine the Great’s lover, in the eighteenth century, at the time he annexed the Crimea for Russia.
The war in Ukraine is going badly for Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean Russia is close to a victory. Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive made no progress at all and has fuelled the growing Ukraine fatigue amongst Kyiv’s Western allies.
Over the summer Ukraine may have had a 2:1 advantage in tube artillery shots, according to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. However, as of the end of 2023, as noted by military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady: “for every four or five rounds Russia fires, Ukraine can only fire one.” According to top general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Ukrainian troops are facing ammunition shortages along the entire front line, posing a significant challenge for Kyiv. Zelenskiy has already admitted that artillery shell supply from the US fell by 30% after the start of the Israeli conflict on October 7.
By December both a US $61bn aid package and a four-year €50bn EU support package were snarled up in political infighting as domestic political agendas got in the way. Ukraine is running out of money again and should more aid not be forthcoming then US experts say that Kyiv may be forced to capitulate in the summer of 2024 after it runs out of ammo.
There is some speculation that Russia may launch a counteroffensive of its own in the spring of 2024, but given Russia is believed to have lost some 500,000 soldiers, killed or wounded, against an estimated 150,000 lost to Ukraine, Putin is unlikely to risk more casualties in an expensive attack.
Analysts are unanimous that Putin will wait for the November US presidential elections, which might return Donald Trump to the White House; he was leading the polls at the time of writing.
16 Russia OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com