Page 31 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

suffering, real problems are arising. We are not happy about it, we are just stating the fact," the president said.
The president also said that the Russian government had not changed its plans and would fulfil the social and infrastructural tasks, support the industry and security.
Russia’s leading ACRA rating agency analysts were even more optimistic, saying in November that GDP will expand by 3-3.2% in 2023, but that the growth rate will slow down to 0.5-1.3% in 2024,
Fixed capital investment will rise by 4.6-6.1% in 2023, and by 2.5-3.7% in 2024. Unemployment is expected to remain flat at 3.1-3.2% during the entire projecting period. Inflation will stand at 7-7.5% in 2023, and will decelerate to 5.2-5.8% in 2024.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has improved its outlook on the growth of Russia’s GDP in 2024 to 1.1% from 0.9%, it said in a November report published on November 29. In 2025, Russia’s GDP should grow by 1%. As for inflation, the organisation expects it to amount to 7.2% in 2024 and to slow down to 5.3% in 2025. At the same time, the OECD’s outlook on the combined global GDP increase was worsened to 2.9% from 3% in 2023, and then it expects the GDP expansion to slow down to 2.7% in 2024 and to speed up to 3% in 2025.
The EC has changed the forecast for Russia's GDP to growth of 2% in 2023 and then by 1.6% annually in 2024 and 2025. In May it predicted a decline in Russia's GDP by 0.9% in 2023 and an increase of 1.3% in 2024. EU GDP growth was reduced from 1% to 0.6%
The European Commission has improved its forecast for Russia’s GDP in 2023 to a 2% increase from a 0.9% fall projected in May, the authority said on November 15. Russia’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 was increased to 1.6% from 1.3% expected earlier. The European Commission projects Russia’s inflation to amount to 6.5% in 2023 and to 3.5% in 2024.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded Russia’s economic growth outlook for 2023 but downgraded its figures for 2024, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report. (chart)
The IMF expects Russia’s GDP growth to have been 2.2% in 2023 and to be 1.1% in 2024. The IMF’s outlook for this year has been revised upward by 0.7 percentage points from July and by 1.5 percentage points from April, according to the report.
"The rise in growth reflects a substantial fiscal stimulus, strong investment and resilient consumption in the context of a tight labour market," the report said.
Meanwhile, Russia’s GDP growth outlook for 2024 has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points compared with expectations in July and April.
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