Page 32 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

The IMF also projects inflation in Russia at 5.3% in 2023, down from 13.8% in 2022, while in 2024 the Fund expects inflation to grow again to 6.3%.
At the start of 2023 the IMF Russia’s economy grew by only 0.7%, and is set to expand by 1.3% in 2024.
Sberbank projects annual Russia’s GDP growth at 1.2% in each of 2024-2026, Vice President Taras Skvortsov said, adding that inflation will fall to 4% by 2025, while the key rate will be 8% in 2025.
"Overall our GDP dynamics forecast for the next three years is quite cautious. We project that growth will equal 1.2% per annum. Meanwhile, inflation will slow down and reach the Bank of Russia’s targeted level of 4% by 2025. The key rate will be going down subsequently as we target 8% for 2025," he said at an investor day.
Moreover, the banking sector will gain 10% per year within the next three years, according to Sber’s projections. The lender expects lending to be under pressure next year. However, in 2025 and 2026, considering a drop in the rate and a gradual easing of regulation by the Central Bank, retail and corporate lending is likely to speed up, Sber said. Customer deposits in banks will rise by around 10% in 2025-2026, Skvortsov noted.
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