Page 34 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

• 2.2 FX FX Overview
The share of settlements in rubles and friendly currencies in 2023 increased to 65%, Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov said. "In 2023, the total share of the ruble and the national currencies of friendly countries will be 65% in payments for the export and import of goods and services. For comparison, in 2021 it was only 22%," he said. According to Belousov, the volume of Russian exports to the markets of friendly countries in 2023 grew by 60% compared to 2021 and reached $360bn.
Ruble FX forecasts
Analysts have revised downwards their forecasts for the $/RUB exchange rate over the entire forecast horizon, but a tendency towards a gradual depreciation has remained unchanged, according to the CBR.
The analysts’ forecast for 2023 is RUB85.4 per dollar (assuming the average exchange rate in December 2023 will be RUB93.6 per dollar), RUB92.0 per dollar for 2024, RUB93.0 per dollar for 2025 and RUB94.8 per dollar for 2026 (revised by −0.6-4.6% compared to the October survey).
The Russian national currency will gradually strengthen to RUB94.3 per dollar by the end of 2023 mainly due to recovery of import dynamics, according to the focal points of the budget, tax and customs-tariff policy for 2024 and the planned period of 2025 and 2026 published on the website of the Finance Ministry. At the start of October the ruble once again approached the RUB100 to the dollar mark it hit in August.
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