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3.0 External Environment
The overall current account surplus fell at the end of 2023 in line with goods trade dynamics, significantly limiting FX inflows. While the surplus bounced back moderately to $17.0bn in Q3 2023, it remains 78% below its peak in Q2 2022. This improvement was driven by a larger goods trade surplus but also a much smaller income and transfers deficit.
In KSE’s December updated forecast, oil and gas exports will have reached $225bn in 2023, $186bn in 2024 and $176bn in 2025. Considering the Q3 2023 outturn of current account components, KSE projects an overall surplus of $55bn for 2023.
Exports of goods and services: Forecasts for 2023-2025 have been slightly lowered to $479bn (-$5bn) for 2023, $505bn (-$3bn) for 2024, and $515bn (-$3bn) for 2025. The forecast for the end of the forecast horizon is unchanged at $517bn, which is 6% lower than in 2021.
Imports of goods and services: Imports are forecast at $377bn (-$4bn) for 2023, $390bn for 2024 and $406bn (-$3bn) for 2025. Analysts expect that by the end of the forecast horizon imports will amount to $414bn (-$7bn), which is 9% higher than in 2021.
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