Page 55 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

Global trade is slowing down. Several international organisations have updated their economic forecasts. In November, the IMF published its global economic forecast in the World Economic Outlook report, where it predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. The forecast is in line with other forecasts, such those from the ECB and OECD. The IMF predicts that world trade will grow by 0.9% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024.
The growth is clearly lower than in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic from 2000 to 2019, when the average growth rate was 3.8%. According to the IMF, the growth of the global economy is weighed down by tight monetary policy aimed at slowing inflation, tightening fiscal policy, the long-term effects of the pandemic, the consequences of the Russian war of aggression, geo-economic fragmentation and extreme weather phenomena such as El Niño.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) also published its world trade forecast in October, which is well in line with the IMF's forecast.
These are historically very slow growth figures, as between 2000 and 2019 World Trade grew by an average of 4.9% per year. Growth is weighed down more oppressive trade restrictions, but also by weak demand from the global economy and the focus of consumption on domestic services even more after the corona restrictions.
• 3.1 Trade dynamics
The export of goods from the EU to Russia is still 37% of the pre-war level. After the start of the full-scale invasion, exports from the EU to Russia, although reduced by more than 60%, are still 37% of the pre-war level. One of the reasons for the volume of exports to Russia remaining high is that only 32% of all goods from the EU are subject to sanctions. In addition, many
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