Page 95 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

Russia’s state statistics service RosStat said earlier that the country’s natural gas production fell by 11.4% in 9M 2023 y/y to 380 bcm. Associated petroleum gas output rose by 4.3% in the reporting period to 78.8 bcm, while LNG production amounted to 23.6mn tonnes, down by 4.4% y/y. Russia’s coal production edged up by 0.9% in January-September to 315mn tonnes, while total electricity output added 0.3% to 856bn kWh.
Oil production is expected to be around 527mn tonnes. In 2022 oil output amounted to 535mn tonnes. The share of production of hard-to-recover oil reserves in Russia may increase from the current 30% to 70% by 2050, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on November 22.
"Today about 30% of our production – 166mn tonnes – is extracted from hard-to-recover reserves. And this share will grow. We expect that by 2050 this share could grow to 70%," he said.
Regarding coal, it is roughly 440mn tonnes, almost flat compared with the 2022 result of 442mn tonnes.
Gas output will be slightly lower than 2022, by around 30 bcm due to the fact that the first half of 2022 still saw maintained gas supplies to Europe, which stopped via Nord Stream as a result of a terrorist attack. The losses will be partially offset due to increased deliveries to China through the Power of Siberia of around 15 bcm.
Russia’s LNG production will reach 33mn tonnes in 2023, with a further increase expected in 2024 due to the launch of the first line of the Arctic LNG-2 plant.
Russia’s electricity production is expected to edge up by 0.8% in 2023 to 1.15 trillion kWh. The situation in the power sector is stable, with electricity production expected at around 1.15 trillion kWh, up by 0.8% compared with last year, which is in line with consumer growth rates ensured.
• 7.1 Oil production & transport Oil production results
Sanctions were supposed to reduce Russia’s oil production from the pre-war high of 11mn bpd to around 6.5mn bpd, according to a report by Yale in the early days of the war. But that failed to happen.
Oil production did drop off after the start of hostilities, but then recovered by the end of the year to almost 11mn bpd again. In 2023 the level of production has fallen off to around 9.5mn bpd, but it has been kept low by Russia’s agreement to voluntarily cut 500,000 bpd day off its production to support prices. Russia exported close to 3.5mn bpd of oil in 2023.
95 Russia OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com