Page 96 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

Given Russia has chosen to reduce production, rather than being forced to reduce it, is testament to the ineffectiveness of the sanctions.
Due to promises made to OPEC+, Russia's oil exports in 2023 will total less than the 247mn tonnes used in Russia's main macroeconomic forecasts, Novak said.
Russia’s revenues from its main tax-generating sources of petrodollars almost doubled between April and October. Russia’s net oil revenues of $11.3bn in October accounted for 31% of the nation’s overall net budget revenue for the month, according to Bloomberg calculations that are built around Russian finance ministry data, but smooth out profit-based tax revenue. That was the highest since May 2022 and exceeded any single month in the year before the invasion of Ukraine..
Oil price outlook
Fitch Ratings increased its 2024 oil price assumptions on December 8, reflecting OPEC+’s continuing tight control over supply. Fitch also raised its TTF gas price assumptions for 2024 and 2026 as prices in the European gas market are likely to remain high in the medium term.
Fitch raised its average price per barrel to $80 for 2024, but down from $82 expected in 2023.
The market is likely to be in deficit of about 1.2mn bpd in 2H23, according to the IEA, and OPEC+’s additional curtailments suggest that the deficit could persist in 1H24, provided that compliance with production cuts remains strong.
96 Russia OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com