Page 40 - bne monthly magazine June 2024 Russian Despair Index

40 I Special focus I Iran bne June 2024
Photo: Leader.ir
President Raisi's death and its
implications for Iran and the region bne Tehran bureau
The sudden death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19 has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the country's political future, especially concerning the succession of the Supreme Leader. However, Iran's entrenched balance of power suggests that there will be no immediate seismic economic or foreign policy shifts anytime soon.
Iran's sanctions-battered economy
is set to continue struggling, and tensions with Israel and the West are likely to persist. Yet, the international response to Raisi’s death underscores a significant thawing in relations with the Persian Gulf states, including previously long-time competitors
like Saudi Arabia. Iranian state media confirmed that President Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and six others perished when their helicopter crashed near the Azerbaijan border. In response, Supreme Leader Ayatollah
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Ali Khamenei has declared five days of mourning and the closure of the country's economy.
Raisi, elected in 2021 as a hardline candidate, had pledged to crack down on corruption, revive the JCPOA nuclear deal, and improve regional relations. While the JCPOA nearly saw a revival
in 2022 under Amir-Abdollahian's watch before mass protests erupted, Raisi's tenure did see the resumption
In the wake of the crash, Ali Bagheri Kani has been promoted to Foreign Minister, stepping up from his previous role as deputy. First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will serve as interim president until an election
is held within the next 50 days. The Guardian Council, a body of clerics and lawyers, will determine the candidates. The 2021 election faced criticism for barring hardliners and reformists, clearing the path for Raisi's victory.
“The larger question looming over Iran is who will succeed Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader”
of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, entrances to to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), launch of regional projects like the joint dam with Azerbaijan and membership to the exclusive BRICS+ club.
The larger question looming over Iran is who will succeed Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Raisi was seen as a close ally and potential successor. His death shifts the focus to other possible candidates, including the Supreme