Page 41 - bne monthly magazine June 2024 Russian Despair Index

bne June 2024 Iran I Special focus I 41
Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, former President Hassan Rouhani, and Hassan Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic's grandchild.
Despite these internal shifts, the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, National Assembly, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) wield substantial influence, diluting the president's power. Consequently, Raisi’s passing is unlikely to precipi- tate immediate changes in policy. Economic challenges will persist, with Iran's economy showing modest growth primarily due to increased oil production. Nevertheless, ongo- ing sanctions severely restrict hard currency inflows, causing the rial
to plummet and fuelling persistent double-digit inflation.
The potential for tighter sanctions remains, particularly if Donald Trump were to regain the US presidency and revive his hardline stance against Iran. Additionally, with significant economic resources controlled by the IRGC, regional tensions, particularly with Israel, will continue to see the military prioritised over business interests. Geopolitically, Iran’s stance is expected to remain steadfast. Hopes for reviving nuclear deal negotiations have stalled, and while direct conflict with Israel has recently de-escalated, Iran’s support for its proxies like the Houthis continues unabated. This implies ongoing regional instability, affecting non-Gulf economies such as Egypt.
Conversely, a new president might seek to sustain the momentum in improving relations with Gulf states, which have extended condolences after Raisi’s death. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, referring to Iran as a “sisterly regime,” highlight the positive shift in regional dynamics. Improved relations between Iran and the Gulf reduce the risk of broader conflict disrupting oil supplies from the region. In sum, while Raisi’s untimely death raises questions about Iran’s immediate political trajectory, there remains little chance that while Khamenei remains at the top of the power structure, any significant change in direction is on the horizon.
EXPLAINER
What happens when an Iranian
president dies in office?
bne Tehran bureau
T
According to Iranian law, Mokhber’s tenure as acting president is limited to a 50-day period, during which an election must be held to choose a new president. This accelerated timeline imposes a significant burden on the nation’s electoral infrastructure and political institutions. In a country where political dynamics are complex and often contentious, the rapid organization of a presidential election could exacerbate existing tensions.
The immediate implications of
Raisi’s death and Mokhber’s potential interim presidency are multifaceted. Domestically, the government must address ongoing economic hardships and public discontent, which have been exacerbated by international sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mokhber's leadership will be scrutinised for its effectiveness in navigating
these challenges and maintaining public order.
On the international front, Iran’s foreign policy, particularly regarding
its nuclear programme and relations with neighbours and Western nations, will come under intense observation. The transition period could either present an opportunity for diplomatic engagement or risk escalating tensions, depending on the actions and rhetoric of Iran’s interim leadership.
The Supreme Leader’s role in this tran- sition cannot be understated. Ayatollah Khamenei’s support for Mokhber will be pivotal in ensuring a smooth hando- ver of power and mitigating potential power struggles within the Iranian political elite. His guidance will likely shape the interim administration’s poli- cies and strategic decisions during this critical period.
he death of President Ebrahim Raisi following a helicopter crash at the age of 63 has sent
shockwaves through Iran, and now the process of finding his successor begins.
According to the Iranian constitution, the mantle of leadership now falls to the first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber. However, his ascent to the presidency is contingent upon the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
This sudden shift in leadership high- lights the unique structure of Iran’s political hierarchy as well as the next supreme leader role which was pegged for Raisi. At the apex is the Supreme Leader, who wields ultimate authority over the state. The president, as head of the government, serves as the second- in-command, managing the day-to-day affairs and representing the country on the global stage.
The unexpected death of a sitting president thus places the first vice president in a critical position, tasked with maintaining continuity and stability during a potentially turbulent transition.
Mohammad Mokhber, known for his administrative prowess and loyalty
to the principles of the Islamic Republic, is now poised to step into the role
of acting president. His immediate challenge will be to reassure both
the Iranian populace and the international community of Iran’s stability and continued adherence
to its policies.
The Supreme Leader's endorsement will be crucial in legitimizing Mokhber's temporary leadership, setting the stage for the next phase of governance.
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