Page 12 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

1.0 Political outlook 1.1 Politics - Czech Republic
Besides elections to the European Parliament in June, the country will also hold regional and Senate elections in the autumn, pending presidential confirmation of the final date of the elections.
The faltering popularity of the centre-right coalition led by Petr Fiala of the neoliberal ODS sank to a 17% trust rating in the autumn survey by the Centre for Research of Public Opinion (CVVM), a Czech Academy of Sciences affiliate, rendering Fiala’s cabinet the second least popular government in the country’s history. The cabinet has struggled to address the multi-fold economic challenges of the post-pandemic recovery, the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the legacy of the unprecedented tax cuts from 2020.
The cabinet passed its flagship austerity package, signed into law in November, and aimed at lowering the ballooning state deficit by CZK150bn (€6bn) over 2024-2025. The package has faced protests from the labour unions, culminating in a strike on November 27 joined by three quarters of Czech schools.
Yet the ruling parties, which also include the socially liberal Pirate Party and the centrist Mayors, may not necessarily fare badly in the EP elections. Czechia has some of the lowest voter turnouts in the EU (28.71% in the last EP elections in May 2019), but the pro-EU electorate is traditionally drawn to EP elections and Fiala’s cabinet is still seen as the more pro-EU alternative to the populist ANO of billionaire Andrej Babis and the far right SPD. The ODS, the right-wing liberal TOP 09 and Christian Democratic KDU-CSL are running on the SPOLU joint list in June, led by the eurosceptic MEP and former dissident Alexandr Vondra (ODS).
The real test could be the regional elections in which polls have long shown ANO party in a dominant position – with nearly 35% popularity ANO would collect over 90 seats in a national parliamentary election, close to a majority. Regional elections attract a slightly higher voter turnout (37.95% in 2020) and the campaign is more focused on domestic affairs, which could suit ANO more than the expected lower turnout for the EP elections with its more EU-focused campaign. ANO won the 2020 elections with 21.82%, ahead of the Pirate Party with 12.02%. Regional elections will also test the real popularity of the
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