Page 13 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

rebranded social democratic party SOCDEM, which polls just below the 5% parliamentary threshold, and which eyes returning to the parliament in the 2025 national elections.
Fiala declared a government-backed nuclear push in a closely watched speech in September. Fiala called for more investments into the country’s nuclear industry, which already represents nearly half of domestic electricity production and makes Czechia an electricity exporter. Fiala reiterated his vision at the COP 28 summit, describing the demanding nuclear investments as his country’s path to protracted decarbonisation. Majority-state-owned energy utility CEZ is poised to select the Dukovany nuclear power plant (NPP) extension bidder in March.
1.2 Politics - Baltic states
The political outlook of the three Baltic states for 2024 is likely to be marked with political uncertainty and tension, especially in Lithuania, which will hold a presidential election in May, and the parliamentary (Seima) election in October. All states will also hold the European Parliament elections in June.
Lithuania’s ruling Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (HU-LCD, TS-LKD) is losing its support and is very likely (the probability is assessed at 90%) not to be in the new Lithuanian government following the parliamentary election.
Ahead of the elections, it is likely (the probability is 50-60%) that the minor coalition partner, Laisve (Freedom) Party – which failed to muster enough support for decriminalisation of soft drugs and for the partnership law, including gay couples – will split off from the coalition, as only that guarantees its survival.
Meanwhile, the other liberal party of the coalition, Liberalu sajudis (the Lithuanian Liberal Movement), has been severely damaged by a court ruling in November, which saw the former leader of the party, Eligijus Masiulis, sentenced to six years imprisonment for accepting a €100,000 bribe.
As a result, both the party’s support and that of its leader, Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen, fell and the party is unlikely to recover for the coming elections.
The probability that the country’s left parties, the Social Democratic party of Lithuania (LSDP), the Farmers and Greens (LFGU, LVZS) and the Union of Democrats For Lithuania, will form a new government in the autumn of 2024 is very high – at 75-90%.
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