Page 15 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

1.3 Politics - Hungary
Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban’s position in Hungary is as strong as ever after his fourth supermajority victory in 2022, despite the cost of living crisis triggered by the highest inflation in the EU and the weak economy. Even with a double-digit decline in real wages in H1 2023, Fidesz remains the dominant force and is set to garner 40% of the votes this summer at the local government and EP elections held concurrently.
The roughly 1mn disenchanted voters leaving the party only boosted the growing camp of undecided, much to the disappointment of opposition parties, which lack funding and access to media and are as fragmented and divided as ever. Without a clear vision, they stand little chance of making a breakthrough. In larger cities and in Budapest, incumbents could remain in power, but they are under an extremely heavy financial squeeze.
The regime is using its financial and administrative might against its critics, as opposition parties face huge fines for allegedly breaching campaign financing laws in 2022. The sovereignty bill, resembling Russia’s foreign agent legislation, and the setting up of the Sovereignty Protection Office, could serve to further intimidate and silence critics.
With its aggressive and overwhelming media power, Orban has successfully shifted the blame for recent economic hardship, pointing to sanctions adopted by Brussels even as he had approved all of them, except for the supply of crude oil and gas, as landlocked Budapest relies heavily on Russian energy sources.
The relationship between Hungary and the EU deteriorated further in 2023.The tensions culminated at the December 14-15 summit, when Hungary’s radical right-wing leader blocked an amendment of the EU’s long-term budget to provide much-needed funds to Ukraine. Analysts expected Budapest to veto the launch of accession talks with Ukraine but instead Orban simply left the room when the voting took place, to guarantee unanimity.
The fallout of his obstructive position in breaking unity could be far-reaching. After the vote, there have been calls to strip Hungary of its veto power. EU leaders are working to secure aid to Ukraine on a bilateral basis, but in the long run, the European Commission should find a way to neutralise Orban’s ransom tactics.
Hungary is to hold the EU’s rotating presidency in the second half, just after the EP elections, which could reshape the political landscape within the EU. Orban’s hopes for the breakthrough of nationalist Eurosceptic parties were dashed in 2019, but he remains upbeat that radical right-wing parties could gain the upper hand this time, which
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