Page 17 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

safeguard Smer party officials from ongoing police investigations, will likely succeed in implementing the changes even if the opposition resorts to challenging the legislative measures at the constitutional court. A narrow majority of Fico’s cabinet, which also includes the centre-left Hlas and the far-right SNS, giving it 79 out of 150 deputies, will be enough to override Caputova’s potential veto, but the row over the changes in judiciary and criminal code will most likely run well into 2024.
The row has already prompted EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders and supreme EU prosecutor Laura Codruta to criticise Fico’s cabinet. Slovak MEP Martin Hojsik said the overhaul would also derail investigations into the misuse of EU funds during Smer’s previous era in power (2012-2018). The EU could then find itself in conflict with Fico’s cabinet.
In such a course of events Fico’s support for the EU’s aid for Ukraine and Ukraine’s bid for EU membership might also come to the fore. Fico won the September 30 elections campaigning to end military support for Ukraine, which Fico and Smer argued prolongs the war. Fico’s cabinet has, however, backed commercial military aid.
Analysts have pointed out Fico is primarily interested in safeguarding Smer officials including himself from domestic police investigations and Fico will be under close watch as to how far he will be willing to align himself with Viktor Orban in an unfolding conflict with EU over the rule of law.
Slovakia is to hold presidential elections no later than April 2024. Incumbent President Zuzana Caputova stated already in June 2023 that she won’t seek re-election amid speculations that she is worn out by relentless attacks from Robert Fico as well as from other populist and far right politicians. Polls show former Minister of Foreign Affairs and pro-Western diplomat Ivan Korcok and Parliamentary Speaker Robert Pellegrini are the most likely candidates to face each other in the run-off, with Pellegrini polling ahead of Korcok at 60%.
If Pellegrini confirms his bid in January, his centre-left Hlas party could be reabsorbed by Fico’s Smer, from which it splintered off following the mass protests which chased Smer from power in 2018. Solidifying of Smer’s influence over Hlas in combination with Pellegrini potentially emerging victorious from the presidential vote would likely strengthen the position of Robert Fico in national politics.
17 CE Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com