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46 I Central Europe bne September 2022
Population decline to take Emerging Europe back to the early 20th century
CPlare Nuttall in Glasgow opulation decline across
almost all of Eemerging Europe will result in the populations of many countries dropping
to levels not seen since the early 20th century.
UN data shows that the total popula- tion of the post-socialist countries in Central, Southeast and Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia will drop from 418mn in 2021 to an expected 362mn by the end of the century, according to the median projection in the World Population Prospects 2022 report.
Taking out the countries of Central Asia – the only region where countries have rapidly growing populations – the slump is even deeper, from 339mn to 231mn, or a decline of 32%, according to bne IntelliNews calculations.
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For the emerging Europe region exclu- ding Central Asia, the population will fall below 249mn – the 2050 level –
in 2084.
By 2021, three Southeast European countries are set to see the steepest population decline compared to 2021. Albania’s population will slump by almost two thirds (61%), while Bulgaria’s population will drop by 57% and Serbia’s by 55%.
Bulgaria’s population is thus forecast to drop to the level it was at around 1880, following the re-establishment of the Bulgarian state after the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878.
For Albania the level was similar to that around the start of the Second World War, when the last king of Albania, Zog I, fled into exile after Italy’s invasion in 1939.
Serbia’s population is also expected to fall to levels last seen in the early 20th century.
Ukraine is the fourth country expected to lose more than half of its population by 2100, with a projected decline of 53%.
The UN projections for 2022 factor in the impact of the war, with Ukraine’s popula- tion expected to drop from 43mn at the beginning of this year to 36mn in 2023. While a gradual recovery is expected in the coming years, assuming Ukrainian refugees return to their homeland when the war ends, Ukraine’s population is never again expected to pass the 40mn mark.
Latvia, Croatia, Bosnia, Lithuania, Kosovo, Armenia, North Macedonia and Poland are all expected to lose between 40% and 50% of their populations by the end of the century.