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Russia’s population decline is expected to be less severe than many other states in emerging Europe because
of immigration from poorer ex-Soviet states. However, the region’s most populated country by far is still expected to see a population decline from 145mn in 2021 to just 114mn
by 2100.
Emerging Europe is experiencing the steepest population decline globally, according to the UN report. “Among countries with at least half a million people, the largest relative reductions in population size until 2050, with losses of 20 per cent or more, are expected
to occur in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine,” it says.
This is due to a combination of the sharp falls in life expectancy and birth rates after the collapse of communism plus mass emigration.
“[L]ife expectancy at birth actually declined during the late 1980s and 1990s due primarily to ... the health crisis in Eastern Europe following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. These setbacks have long-lasting effects on life expectancy at birth,” said the UN report.
“The slow recovery in life expectancy
at birth in the countries of the former Soviet Union explains the large and continuing differences across European countries. In 2021, life expectancy at birth ranged from less than 70 years
in the Republic of Moldova and the Russian Federation to 84 years in Switzerland.” This continues to have negative consequences for the region, which is characterised by tight labour markets, a brain drain and ageing populations, which act as constraints on economic growth.
It remains unclear to what extent immigration may make up for this. As well as Russia, the richer countries in Central and Southeast Europe, notably Slovenia and Czechia, are experiencing inward migration that is balancing natural population decline.
There have been efforts to recruit from
as far afield as Africa and Southeast Asia to tackle labour shortages. Some of the Ukrainian refugees that fled to the eastern EU member states may become permanent immigrants, though this depends on when and how the war ends.
On the other hand, there is fast population growth in Central Asia, where birth rates are considerably higher than in the rest of emerging Europe. As previously reported by bne IntelliNews this will result in Central Asian countries overtaking their Central, Eastern and Southeast European peers this century.
The population of Tajikistan, the region’s poorest country, is forecast to more than double by 2100 from 9.6mn in 2021 to 20.4mn in 2100. Between 1950 and 2100, Tajikistan’s population is expected to increase by a staggering 1,261%.
Other states from the region also have fast growth rates, with their populations not expected to peak until the latter years of the century; both Kyrgyzstan’s and Tajikistan’s are projected to still be growing by 2100.
This brings its own problem as the governments will need to ensure they can feed and provide energy to their
Eastern Europe. Total population
growing populations in a region where climate change is already a serious problem.
These countries aside, the rest of the region with its steady population decline contrasts with the global forecast of population growth for much of this century.
The world’s population is projected to reach 8bn on November 15 this year, and could grow to 9.7bn in 2050 and 10.4bn in 2100.
The UN reports that population growth is caused in part by declining levels of mortality, with life expectancy reaching 72.8 years in 2019, up by almost nine years since 1990.
Geographically, more than half of the projected increase in global popula- tion up to 2050 will be concentrated
in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
Like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to continue growing until the end of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa will contribute more than half of the global population increase expected by 2050.
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