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on Jan. 24 said Ukraine will insist on an international investigation into the crash of the Russian Il-76 transport plane in Belgorod Oblast.
Ukraine says it was not informed about need to ensure safety of airspace before plane crash in Belgorod Oblast. The Russian side did not notify Ukraine about the necessity to ensure the safety of the airspace around Belgorod, Ukraine's military intelligence said, which has been done "repeatedly" in the past.
In January, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted this week that “[n]ow Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the country’s east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected.” A new Russian offensive could occur sometime between Jan. 12 and Feb. 2, ISW reported, citing estimates of Russian war watchers. For Ukraine to survive Russian offensives in 2024, it needs to pursue the strategy of active defence, according to Western officials cited by FT. Pursuing this strategy, toward which the Ukrainian government has recently allocated $466 million, could be vital, given the ammunition and personnel shortages the Ukrainian armed forces are suffering from, the former partially blamed on delays in disbursements of military aid by the U.S. and EU.
Russian artillery fire now exceeds Ukrainian artillery fire at ratios between five-to-one and ten-to-one, ISW reported this week, citing Ukrainian defence Minister Rustem Umerov. “Today we had two shells, but some days we don’t have any in these positions,” a commander of a Ukrainian artillery crew told NYT. “I have two tanks, but only five shells,” a deputy Ukrainian battalion commander told this newspaper.
Russian forces can generate forces at a rate equal to Russian monthly personnel losses, while Ukrainian forces struggle to find adequate personnel reinforcements, according to the Ukrainian MoD’s military intelligence cited by ISW and NYT, respectively. “Three out of 10 soldiers who show up are no better than drunks who fell asleep and woke up in uniform,” a Ukrainian soldier confided to NYT in reference to new recruits that arrive at his brigade. Ukrainian MPs are expecting to receive a revised version of the mobilisation bill, which is expected to allow a mobilisation of half a million Ukrainians, in the first week of February, according to Ukrainskaya Pravda.
Kyiv has changed its strategy and seeks to destroy Russian infrastructure. The Armed Forces are moving from the targeting of purely military targets in the occupied territories to the destruction of Russian infrastructure that serves both the civilian population and the military-industrial complex. The new targets include facilities crucial in supplying and supporting Russian military forces. In this way, Ukraine seeks to pressure the enemy and change the course of military operations in its favor. This shift in strategy was on display in a series of attacks that Ukraine recently carried out. UAVs from Ukraine’s Armed Forces attacked the Tambov Gunpowder Plant, one of the largest producers of gunpowder for small arms and artillery ammunition. Ukrainian drones also attacked the Shcheglovsky Val plant in the Leningrad region, where the Russian Federation produces Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile complexes. Ukraine forces also attacked an aircraft factory in the Smolensk region where the Russian military produces and repairs aircraft, including X-59
23 UKRAINE Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com