Page 19 - IRANRptOct22

In the introduction to its update, the IMF wrote: “Global economic prospects have worsened significantly since our last World Economic Outlook forecast in January. At the time, we had projected the global recovery to strengthen from the second quarter of this year after a short-lived impact of the Omicron variant. Since then, the outlook has deteriorated, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—causing a tragic humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe—and the sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end hostilities.
“This crisis unfolds while the global economy was on a mending path but had not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significant divergence between the economic recoveries of advanced economies and emerging market and developing ones. In addition to the war, frequent and wider-ranging lockdowns in China—including in key manufacturing hubs—have also slowed activity there and could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains. Higher, broader, and more persistent price pressures also led to a tightening of monetary policy in many countries. Overall risks to economic prospects have risen sharply and policy trade-offs have become ever more challenging.”
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Iran’s industry minister releases ‘satisfactory’ sample figures on industrial growth
Describing Iran’s industrial production situation as “satisfactory”, Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade Reza Fatemi Amin on September 5 provided some output data such as passenger car production growth of 279% y/y. The figure covered the current Persian year (started March 21) to August 30, he said.
Iran has enjoyed a steady rebound in economic output in recent months. The fact that the US continues to turn a blind eye to sanctionable trade as part of the goodwill it is showing in the bid to find a path to restarting the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has helped. Iran faces less of a headache in making ‘under the radar’ sales of crude oil, gas, LNG and petrochemicals. Accessing parts on the markets for auto production has also become less of an ordeal.
"According to official statistics, the situation with production in Iran is normal," Fatemi Amin said at a press conference in Tehran.
Production, he said, was the most important indicator for assessing the economy.
Other figures in the assessed period given by the minister were production of crude steel – +5.2%; steel products – +4.9%; aluminium ingots +15.7%; alumina – +8.4%; coal concentrate – + 20%; glass – + 7.2%; glass containers – + 17%, cars – +250%; vans – +47.7%; buses and minibuses – + 129%; trucks – +148% and tractors – +58%.
"We also saw growth in petrochemicals by 9%, acrylic fibres by 26%, polyester fibres by 5%, footwear by 31% and televisions by 6%," said Fatemi Amin.
19 IRAN Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com