Page 20 - IRANRptOct22

Iran’s industrial output up 6% y/y in first three Persian calendar months says central bank
Iran’s industrial sector grew by 6% in the first three months of the Iranian calendar year (March 21-June 21), according to Deputy Industry Minister Mehdi Sadeqi Niaraki. Sadeqi Niaraki was reported as citing Central Bank of Iran (CBI) data by the semi-official Mehr News Agency.
The uptick coincided with a cessation of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions across the country, with factories returning to work. However, industrial production remained at a stubbornly low level due to the severe devaluation of the Iranian rial against hard currencies, forcing producers to bump up prices.
In the first four months of the Persian calendar year (March 21-July 22) more than 2,000 production units and over 54,000 jobs were created, the minister added. Year on year, job creation in industry was up 46%, he said.
The CBI, meanwhile, has given a figure of 6.2% for Iran’s GDP growth in the first three months of the Iranian year, official news outlet PressTV has reported. The figure was 4.7% excluding oil.
The central bank reportedly calculated the data against prices of 2016, using that year as a base year because the Iranian rial was firm against international currencies in that year.
Iran’s industrial production decreased 1.6% y/y in the third quarter of 2021, compared to a rise of 9.1% and 5.8 y/y in the first and second quarters of 2021, respectively.
4.2 Inflation
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Academic attempts to explain Iran’s record inflation
Iran’s official annual inflation rose 13.2 pp to 52.5% in June from 39.3% in May, the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) announced on June 28.
“An average Iranian family lost 10% of its shopping power within this 30-day period,” noted Ali Dadpay, an associate professor of finance at Gupta College of Business, University of Dallas, writing for Al-Monitor. “Iranian consumers are paying 50% more for the same products compared to spring 2021. The loss of real income and purchasing power for many Iranian families is significant and irreversible.”
Seeking to explain the record inflation, the academic said it was “not the new
20 IRAN Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com