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buying more shells from allies that also produce the same shells such as South Korea and delivered extra supplies to Ukraine ahead of this summer’s counteroffensive. However, those supplies are now also reportedly running low.
Despite the fact that a large-scale classical positional war has developed, neither the US nor the EU has been willing to invest into boosting arms production by investing into new shell production facilities. The problem is the privately owned arms manufacturers want Western governments to sign multiyear multi-billion dollar contracts, which the governments are reluctant to do – which implies they believe the war in Ukraine will be over much sooner than that.
As its own stocks of 155mm shells runs dry, the US recently started to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions, also a 155mm calibre, which have been banned by many countries due to the lingering hazard to civilians from the unexploded “pellets” that these shells inevitably leave behind.
Europe getting ready to invest Europe has moved further towards investing into expanding its shell production with a plan to produce 1mn shells by March next year, but the same reluctance to invest is reportedly hampering those efforts too.
The EU’s plan involved reimbursing supplies from member states' own existing stocks of shells as the first step, followed by a joint purchase of new munitions as the second step that should trigger the needed investment by arms producers to expand production.
As of October, more than half of the allocated time to see increased production has passed but the EU had only delivered under a third (30%) of the planned supplies, raising concerns about meeting the deadline.
Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the European External Action Service, the EU's foreign policy arm, informed member states' diplomats that the delivery was unlikely to be completed by March 2024. Some member states had been reluctant to disclose details about their supply efforts, and the EU might request more information from them. This issue is expected to be discussed during an upcoming EU defence ministers' meeting.
According to report, bureaucratic obstacles and protectionism within individual member countries has slowed the planned increase in supply of shells, according to a Kyiv Independent investigation.
Ukraine's demand for munition supplies has become increasingly urgent after Russia boosted its defence budget for 2024 by a quarter as it continues to put its economy on a full war footing and is running its defence factors 24/7 to increase military supplies. In addition, Russia has also been buying shells from its partners; reportedly Russia has secured over 1mn shells from North Korea.
Ukraine going alone In response to the ongoing delays and falling Western supplies, Kyiv is increasingly turning to producing more munitions itself as a solution, as it becomes increasingly likely this will turn into a long war.
Ukraine hosted an international defence industry conference in Kyiv on
10 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com