Page 9 - UKRRptDec23

2.2 EU will miss the pledged 1mn artillery shell supply deadline
The EU is unlikely to deliver the pledged 1mn artillery shells to Ukraine by the March 2024 deadline that will exacerbate a growing ammunition crisis in its war against Russia, according to sources cited by Bloomberg on November 10.
In March, the EU approved a plan to supply Ukraine with badly needed 155mm artillery shells within a year. Without aircover, the war in Ukraine has largely become an artillery duel, with the 155mm shells the workhorse for both sides. With Russia producing 1.7mn shells a year, planned to rise to 2mn shells by the end of this year according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine has found itself massively outgunned.
As bne IntelliNews reported from the front line in the battle for Bakhmut in March, Ukrainian gunners were already forced to ratio their shell volleys and limited themselves to high value targets due to the shortage of shells.
Ukraine doesn’t produce any shells of its own in any significant quantity and has been relying on its Nato partners for supplies. At the start of the war over 600 days ago, the US gave Ukraine 1mn shells from its own stockpiles. However, with Russia firing up to twenty times more shells a day than Ukraine, that stockpile is almost depleted.
The US is now running low on shells as its own arms industry only produces some 100,000 of the 155mm shells a year. After US arms companies doubled shifts and invested into ramping up existing production the output of US shells has roughly doubled but it remains far below the levels necessary to supply Ukraine so that it can match Russia’s rate of fire.
As bne IntelliNews reported in January this year Ukraine was likely to run out of ammunition this summer. Nato allies have managed to put off the crisis by
9 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com