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the IMF now anticipates Ukraine's GDP growth to reach 4.5%. Gavin Gray, an IMF official, noted the country's remarkable resilience and signs of stabilisation, attributing the stronger-than-expected economic recovery to recent developments.
Ukraine's agricultural sector is showing promise, with the $A updating its forecasts for the 2023/2024 marketing year. The forecast for corn production has increased by 1.5mn tonnes to 29.5mn tonnes, with exports expected to reach 20mn tonnes. Wheat production is projected to remain stable, while exports are set to increase by 1mn tonnes to 12mn.
The problem remains getting Ukraine’s grain to market. A temporary corridor has been opened along Ukraine’s coast to the EU market that allows some seaborne exports. Poland and its neighbours have blocked the rail and road routes to the west thanks to the impact it has had on the local economies. Together this means that despite a bumper harvest, Ukraine’s grain exports are down by a third, which is hurting and the trade balance went back into deficit.
November’s blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border may have substantial economic consequences, with potential damages estimated at up to $400mn. Disruptions in the supply of Ukrainian goods via truck through Poland are expected to affect both exports and imports. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) calculated that road transport accounted for approximately 35% of exports and 70% of imports in 2023.
In October 2023, imports into Ukraine increased to $5.64bn thanks to recovering incomes, while exports remained relatively stable at $2.68bn, according to customs data.
As for the war, Ukraine’s top general controversially said it has reached a stalemate and now winter has set in, little change is expected on the battlefield until the spring.
As of the start of December Russia launches its largest ever drone strike against cities in Ukraine hoping to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences. The attack was largely unsuccessful with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) shooting down 71 of the 75 drones. However, the attack highlighted that Russia is clearly planning to target Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure over the winter in the hope of freezing the population into submission.
Russia’s economy is now on a full war footing and it is producing more shells, while Ukraine is running out, and increasingly sophisticated missiles and drones. The West has promised to counter this threat with increased air defence supplies.
2.0 Politics
2.1 What Ukraine needs to win the war
On November 1, an article authored by General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was published in The Economist. In this article, General Zaluzhnyi outlined five critical needs that
7 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com