Page 101 - UKRRptDec23

Ukraine has already harvested 71.5 million tons of the new harvest, and the USDA has improved its forecast for Ukrainian corn and wheat exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 10 farmers have harvested 71.5 million tons of new grain and oil crops. This figure includes more than 51.27 million tons of grain and 20.24 million tons of oil crops. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its forecast for the balance of major crops for the 2023/2024 marketing year. Ukraine's expected figures for corn production increased by 1.5 million tons to 29.5 million tons and for export - by 500,000 tons to 20 million tons. In addition, the ministry predicts that Ukraine’s wheat production will remain unchanged, and exports will increase by one million tons to 12 million. Updated global wheat forecasts predict increased supply, ending stocks, and lower consumption and trade volumes. As for corn, all indicators are expected to grow.
A collaborative study by Kyiv School of Economics and World Food Programme investigates the long-term implications of abandoning the Black Sea grain initiative on Ukraine's food balances. This study employs a dynamic, multi-country AGMEMOD model to explore production and consumption scenarios over an eight-year period. Different scenarios consider varying degrees of export access and infrastructure attacks to gauge the war's dynamic effects on domestic production and food availability.
Modelling results suggest that under the two most pessimistic scenarios (complete port blockade and medium to large-scale infrastructure attacks), wheat production could fall below domestic consumption levels. However, Ukraine's ample wheat storage capacity could help offset this shortfall. In contrast, domestic corn and sunflower oil production is expected to exceed local demand under all scenarios. Other grains not primarily exported, like buckwheat, are likely to meet local demand through market self-regulation mechanisms. Grains used mainly for animal feed, such as rye, are relatively resilient to the impacts of infrastructure attacks.
Many key Ukrainian food products, including potatoes, sugar, milk and dairy, meat, and poultry, are less susceptible to export blockages and infrastructure attacks due to decentralized production or concentration in Western regions with proximity to EU borders. However, it's essential to note that these products can still be vulnerable to other adverse events, as demonstrated by the impact of the Kakhovka dam destruction.
In the first nine months of 2023, Ukraine has adopted the State Anticorruption program for 2023-2024 with a dedicated chapter on land governance, established a legal basis for public monitoring of land governance and adopted a law to reform the right to permanent use of state-owned farmlands. Additionally, the government reintroduced a pilot project for parcel registration in the State Cadastre by certified land surveyors and laid the groundwork for mass land valuation. Priority actions for Ukraine in land governance include cancelling free-of-charge privatization of agricultural lands, addressing farmland consolidation, and lifting the moratorium on state and communally owned farmlands. The subsequent sale of such lands via Prozorro.Sales and the development of public land relations monitoring are also in focus.
Despite the war, Rivne farmers are building new farms and processing plants. According to Igor Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the Regional State
101 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com