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and also their ability to actually strike behind the Russian lines deep into Russian-controlled territory,” he said.
"Military achievements can partially be measured in square metres, but also on the losses you are able to inflict on your adversary. Yes, the frontline hasn’t moved so much... The Ukrainians have been able to inflict heavy losses on the Russian invaders, both measured in personnel and casualties but also in taking out fighting capabilities. So, these are significant gains. And also, they’ve been able to push back the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet from a big part of the Black Sea."
There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking forward, Kofman predicts that Russia will have the material advantage in 2024 in artillery munition and the production of long-range drones and cruise missiles, but insisted that this advantage will not be decisive. Kofman also predicts that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure will be worse this winter than last.
Some European officials “fear Ukraine's position on the battlefield could unravel this winter,” even though the Ukrainian military plans to build new defensive fortifications, according to WSJ reporter Marcus Walker. The West has come to see Volodymyr Zelensky's war aim of fully restoring Ukraine's international borders as “unrealistic,” reinforcing the view in Germany that a “cease-fire and negotiations with Moscow would be in Ukraine's interests,” according to Walker’s analysis. In another recent WSJ article, Walker predicts that “many months on the defensive” could be awaiting Ukraine.
Ukrainian military personnel are getting fed up with not having enough supplies, President Vladimir Zelenskiy and the top brass, says the German weekly tabloid Bild on November 27. According to the newspaper’s authors, who interviewed soldiers on the condition of anonymity, "many things on the frontline are not going the way Ukrainian soldiers would like them to." One soldier told Bild that "he and his fellows have to pay for the repairs of equipment and fuel from their own cash allowances." Another complained about the lack of synergy between brigades. He said had been trained in a Nato country, but senior officers, he said, were still using outdated methods of combat.
Over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained in partner countries. Over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have received training in facilities of more than 30 partner countries in less than two years, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Nov. 21, citing Major General Oleksandr Kyrylenko, the deputy chief of the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces.
The Ukrainian army has already recaptured 50% of the previously occupied territories, said the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak on November 14.
Ukraine’s Western partners expect a long war but are preparing to continue their support. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that the war in Ukraine can last a very long time. NATO Secretary General Jens
30 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com