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2.3 Iran plans to replace Russian oil sales in Europe if JCPOA reinstated
A growing number of media reports suggest Iran is looking to fill a ‘Russia-sized hole’ in oil sales to Europe if a new nuclear deal with the major powers can be struck.
Iran's state oil producer would pursue customers in countries including Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey should economic sanctions be eased under a fresh nuclear accord, according to an August 25 report by Bloomberg that cited people with knowledge of Tehran's strategy.
Still, despite some optimism this week, the path to a reinstated nuclear deal, or JCPOA, appeared to grow somewhat more difficult on August 25 with, for instance, Axios reporting Israeli officials as saying the US has toughened its positions in its indirect negotiations with Tehran on finding an agreement.
The Israelis reportedly feel reassured the US does not plan to give Iran further meaningful concessions to agree a revival of the JCPOA, a deal that was agreed in 2015 to verifiably ensure Iran keeps its nuclear programme entirely civilian in return for the lifting of economic sanctions on Tehran.
Axios quoted Israeli officials as saying US officials have made it clear they will not put political pressure on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) watchdog to close its investigations into undeclared Iranian nuclear activity, as Tehran has requested, claiming the probes were triggered by false Israeli intelligence.
Israel has also been concerned that a reconfigured deal might include an easing of restrictions on conducting business with Iranian companies linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is designated on the US list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs). The White House has said it would not soften its position on the due diligence process for such business, according to the cited Israeli officials.
Another concern of Iran is what economic guarantees Tehran will be given as a shield against the impact of a future US president withdrawing from the multilateral JCPOA, as Donald Trump did in 2018 on a unilateral basis. The Iranians are said to have demanded that international companies that sign contracts in Iran receive a two and a half year grace period from renewed US sanctions. According to the Israeli officials who spoke to Axios, the US would only agree to such a grace period if Iran remained in the deal for those two and a half years.
10 IRAN Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com