Page 37 - RusRPTJun20

population.
● Stage 3: Active Growth​. From 3Q21 to 4Q21, the Russian economy
should return to active growth, and the government will revive its pre-COVID goal of achieving GDP growth above the global average.
Preliminary data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) suggests a GDP decline of 8% in the second quarter ​of this year, Governor of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said on May 8.
3.2 ​Macro outlook
Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will fall by 5% in 2020 ​and will start to recover at the end of the year, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said in a statement published late on May 22.
"We expect that the active stage of economic recovery will start in October–December and will continue in 2021," Reshetnikov said, adding that in 2021 economy will grow by 2.8%.
Recession in annual terms is expected at 9.5% in April–June, 6.3% in July–September, 5.2% in October–December of 2020, he said. "As soon as the quarantine restrictions are eased, resumption of GDP growth is expected on the quarter starting from the third quarter," Reshetnikov said.
Russians' real disposable income will fall by 3.8% in 2020, while unemployment will surge to 5.7% of the labour force, the highest since 2011, the Economic Development Ministry said.
In 2021, the real disposable income is to rise by 2.8%, in 2022 by 2% and in 2023 by 2.6%. Retail will fall by 5.2% in 2020 and recover by 4% in 2021.
The ministry said that the average price of the Urals oil blend can fall to US $31.1 in 2020 from $63.8 in 2019. Reshetnikov said that in June–December, the average price can be lower than $30 per barrel. The exchange rate of the ruble is expected at 75–76 against the US dollar as of the end of 2020.
Inflation is seen at 4% in 2020.
Investment will fall by 12% in 2020 and rise by 4.9% in 2021. Russia's exports will sink to $268bn in 2020 from $419bn in 2019, and will recover to $301bn in 2021, $360bn in 2022, $400bn in 2023.
Sberbank expects Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 4.2% in 2020​, the bank said in a presentation on Thursday. The bank forecasts the GDP to rise by 3.1% in 2021 and by 2% in 2022.
International rating agency Fitch has worsened the forecast for Russian gross domestic product (GDP) decline in 2020 to 5% from 3.3% expected in April​, the agency said in a statement on Tuesday. Fitch’s estimate now matches the Russian Economic Development Ministry's assessment. The agency said that the outlook deterioration for the emerging economies was caused by worsening of the healthcare crisis over the last month.
International rating agency ​Moody’s​ expects that Russia’s national GDP will decline by 5.5% in 2020 ​but will grow by 2.2% in 2021, the agency said on Tuesday, according to ​TASS​. The rating agency lowered the outlook for Russian GDP growth to 0.5% on March 25 on the back of falling oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic. Moody’s also revised real GDP outlooks for 2020 and 2021 downward for all members of the Group of Twenty. Oil prices are expected to remain low, the rating agency forecasts.
37​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com