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    4.0​ Real Economy
 Key macroeconomic indicators
 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2M20 2020e
 GDP -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 1.3 - -2.7
 Industrial output -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 -6.3
 Retail trade -10 -4.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.7 -3.8
 Inflation (EOP) 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3 2.3 5
 Real wages -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 2.9 6.5* -6.7
 Current account, $ bn 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 70.6 16 45
 Budget deficit, % of GDP -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 1.8 -1.7 -1.7
 RUB/USD (avg) 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 64.8 62.9 73.4
 RUB/USD (EOP) 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 61.9 67 72
 Brent $ / bbl (avg) 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 64.4 60 39
 CBR rate 11 10 7.75 7.75 6.25 6 7.5 Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
4.1​ Industrial production
       The State Statistics Service has published industrial production statistics for April, which declined 6.6% y/y ​after growing 0.3% y/y in March. It was down 0.6% y/y in 4m20.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, it contracted 5.7% m/m in April. All subsectors showed negative dynamics.
Mining ​and quarrying output declined by 3.2% y/y in April after a 1.7% y/y drop in March (it was down 0.8% y/y in 4m20), as it was negatively affected by decreased output of coal and minerals (other than oil, gas and metal ores).
Manufacturing ​was one of the sectors hardest hit by the epidemic and lockdown measures, as it suffered from both demand and supply shocks, since many stores and non-essential production facilities were closed. Manufacturing output was down 10% y/y in April after 2.6% growth in March, though it was still up 0.1% y/y in 4m20. Water supply, disposal and waste management contracted 11.4% y/y, while the production of electricity, gas and heat was down only 1.9% y/y.
Consumer demand ​showed the sharpest declines in segments (except for food) as well as investment, while export-oriented segments and those connected to healthcare fared better.
Food production ​increased by 3.7% y/y in April, as people started to eat more at home. The production of oil products was up by 0.7% y/y, chemicals by 2.4% y/y, and drugs and medical equipment by 13.5% y/y.
 39​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com
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